1899 Hoffenheim
Attack+4%
Defense risk−21%
1899 Hoffenheim
14th · 6 pts · 6 played
LWLLW
VS—
Compare
FC Schalke 04
15th · 5 pts · 6 played
DWDLL
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Schalke 04. 1899 Hoffenheim have 3 days of rest, FC Schalke 04 8.2 and have to travel 280 km.
Away travel280 kmRest days3 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim45%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0431%
1899 Hoffenheim44%
Draw27%
FC Schalke 0429%
1899 Hoffenheim45%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0431%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0438%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0431%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 18 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
1899 Hoffenheim
88%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
1899 Hoffenheim
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
1899 Hoffenheim
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 04
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
46
AttackIn forecast
33
43
DefenceIn forecast
50
15
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Schalke 04
Attack+18%
Defense risk−13%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimFC Schalke 04
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
100%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.83
ShotsContext
10.17
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
34%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
61%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.17
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.17
4.33
BlocksContext
4.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.17
52%
Save rateContext
84%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
499
PassesContext
349
405
Accurate passesContext
243
81%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.33
FoulsContext
9.33
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
28%
On target shareContext
36%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
62%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.63
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.10
BlocksContext
3.40
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
50%
Save rateContext
79%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
515
PassesContext
380
426
Accurate passesContext
278
83%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.00
FoulsContext
8.90
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
LLLLW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,221 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel280 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
FC Schalke 04 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov | 8.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 280 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,221 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Last XI · not confirmed
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots
28K. Machida
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
22A. Prass
7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek
11F. Asllani
20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
No reported absences
FC Schalke 04
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Schalke 04+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
FC Schalke 04 · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 1899 Hoffenheim wins0 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 9 Apr 20231899 Hoffenheim2–0FC Schalke 04
- 14 Oct 2022FC Schalke 040–31899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 4.17 | 1.83 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 1.83 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 33% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 9.00 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.10 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
8
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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