Arouca

5th · Primeira Liga · 14 points · Matches played: 8

10 points behind FC Porto · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-1.9 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +0.7 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 33.9-1.9
World Rank 176th Global, by Elo
Primeira Liga Rank 6th L90 Strength
Last EstrelaH xG 0.8–1.5 1–0 Next AlvercaA 26%

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Upcoming fixtures

Arouca · All competitions

Forecast
AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away 26% win 1.05 xPts NacionalPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home 61% win 2.05 xPts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away 30% win 1.17 xPts Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EstrelaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts NacionalPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Arouca · All competitions

Full time
EstrelaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home W 1–0 0.8–1.5 xG +1.1 Δpts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 — xG +0.6 Δpts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home L 1–2 — xG -1.5 Δpts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away D 0–0 — xG -0.4 Δpts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home W 2–1 1.7–0.7 xG +1.1 Δpts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away L 0–2 0.5–2.9 xG -0.6 Δpts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home W 4–0 2.2–0.5 xG +1.2 Δpts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away W 1–0 0.4–2.3 xG +1.8 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Arouca first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 0

Rest profile12.8 days since last match
0%
Schedule load1 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel load236 km to venue, 0 km in 14 days
0%
Squad availabilityFull squad available
0%

Load before the next match, at Alverca, 24 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 8 Aug at Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 43/100
W
 Aug 16 Aug vs Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 41/100
W
 23 Aug at FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 85/100
L
 29 Aug vs Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 15/100; match difficulty 29/100
W
 7 Sep at Estoril: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 37/100
D
 Sep 13 Sep vs Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 50/100
L
 19 Sep at Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 88/100
D
 11 Oct vs Estrela: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 34/100
W
 Oct 24 Oct at Alverca: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 47/100 1 Nov vs Nacional: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 31/100 Nov 6 Nov at Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 54/100 28 Nov vs Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 36/100 6 Dec at SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 69/100 Dec 13 Dec at Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100 20 Dec vs Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 33/100 27 Dec at GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 50/100 10 Jan vs Benfica: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 87/100 Jan 17 Jan vs Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 43/100 24 Jan at Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 41/100 31 Jan vs FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 85/100 7 Feb at Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 29/100 Feb 14 Feb vs Estoril: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 37/100 21 Feb at Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 50/100 28 Feb vs Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 49/100; match difficulty 88/100 7 Mar at Estrela: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 34/100 Mar 14 Mar vs Alverca: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 47/100 21 Mar at Nacional: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 31/100 4 Apr vs Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 54/100 Apr 11 Apr at Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 36/100 18 Apr vs SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 69/100 25 Apr vs Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100 2 May at Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 33/100 May 9 May vs GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 50/100 16 May at Benfica: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 87/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest12.8 daysbefore ALV
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel / 14d0 kmaway trips
Schedule load0%Low
at AlvercaSat 24 Oct, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 30 26%win26%draw48%loss Low load · 12.8 d rest vs NacionalSun 1 Nov, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 17 61%win22%draw17%loss Low load · 8 d rest at FamalicaoFri 6 Nov, 20:45 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 38 30%win27%draw43%loss Low load · 5.2 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → at Alverca, 24 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing+16%

Baseline 3.79 → Forecast 4.41 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing−7%

Baseline 4.43 → Forecast 4.13 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
at Alverca24 Oct · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 −2% +2% 1.16 → 1.14
vs Nacional1 Nov · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 +39% −20% 1.47 → 2.04
at Famalicao6 Nov · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 +4% −5% 1.17 → 1.22

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Arouca

Baseline: average Primeira Liga opponent

Attack Downlift −2% Expected goals Baseline1.16Forecast1.14
Conceding Risk +2% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.58Forecast1.61
Clean Sheet −0.8 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline20.7%Forecast19.9%