UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 26th · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Club Brugge KV 16th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Club Brugge KV. PSV Eindhoven have 4.1 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 5 and have to travel 159 km.

Away travel159 kmRest days4.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
PSV Eindhoven39%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV39%
Expected goals 1.84 – 1.85
PSV Eindhoven42%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV31%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23
PSV Eindhoven39%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV39%
Expected goals 1.84 – 1.85
PSV Eindhoven30%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV47%
Expected goals 1.64 – 2.07
PSV Eindhoven38%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV38%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.74
Over 2.5 71% Both score 71% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge KV. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KV
74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
60 AttackIn forecast 86
64 DefenceIn forecast 58
32 Form indexContext 86
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack−27%
Defense risk+82%

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KV
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00
— xGVia Att/Def 2.76
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 3.62
— Goals minus xGContext +0.24
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.50 ShotsContext 12.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
37% On target shareContext 42%
5.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.00
51% Box shareContext 83%
5% ConversionContext 25%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.00
13.50 Shots allowedContext 24.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 9.00
4.50 BlocksContext 7.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
88% Save rateContext 67%
56% PossessionIn forecast 56%
430 PassesContext 495
367 Accurate passesContext 436
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.68 Team ratingContext 6.75
13.00 FoulsContext 14.50
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.61
1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.11
90% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.30 ShotsContext 17.00
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
38% On target shareContext 34%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.70
67% Box shareContext 76%
15% ConversionContext 15%
2.22 OffsidesContext 1.67
11.70 Shots allowedContext 15.70
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
3.56 BlocksContext 4.60
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
71% Save rateContext 76%
58% PossessionIn forecast 62%
526 PassesContext 580
464 Accurate passesContext 515
88% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.95 Team ratingContext 7.17
10.50 FoulsContext 9.20
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts
Club Brugge KV
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel159 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 12 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Inter4–30.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · RAAL La Louvière4–12.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genk3–01.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Antwerp3–12.4 xPts
  • L8 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PSV Eindhoven Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct5Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km77 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.83.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans
Club Brugge KV Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Inter (A) 4–3, 13 Oct
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 58J. Spileers 64K. Sabbe
11J. Virgili 20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PSV Eindhoven No reported absences
Club Brugge KV No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Club Brugge KV · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 0.503.00
Conceded per game 1.003.00
Match goals 1.506.00 3.69
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 71%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 50%100% 71%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 2.602.50
Conceded per game 1.201.00
Match goals 3.803.50 3.69
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 70%80% 71%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 80%50% 71%
Clean sheets 10%50%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won6.003.50
Corners conceded4.004.50
Match total10.008.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.503.50
Opponent cards3.502.50
Match total6.006.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.447.30
Corners conceded3.893.40
Match total9.3310.709.71
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.544% 4/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.901.90
Opponent cards2.402.10
Match total4.304.003.80
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

PSV Eindhoven2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Club Brugge KV2 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
3 61-75
1 2 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 46-60
6 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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