UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 17:45 OPAP Arena, Athens
AEK Athens FC 20th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Real Madrid are slight favourites.

Real Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AEK Athens FC. AEK Athens FC have 14.9 days of rest, Real Madrid 3.1 and have to travel 2,369 km.

Away travel2,369 kmRest days14.9 · 3.1Matches / 14d0 · 3
AEK Athens FC19%
Draw21%
Real Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.16 – 2.14
AEK Athens FC18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Expected goals 0.95 – 1.88
AEK Athens FC19%
Draw21%
Real Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.16 – 2.14
AEK Athens FC14%
Draw19%
Real Madrid67%
Expected goals 1.03 – 2.40
AEK Athens FC19%
Draw21%
Real Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.15 – 2.12
Over 2.5 64% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Athens)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AEK Athens FCReal Madrid
53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
50 AttackIn forecast 89
57 DefenceIn forecast 85
— Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AEK Athens FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack+3%
Defense risk−6%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AEK Athens FCReal Madrid
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.42 xGVia Att/Def —
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.50 ShotsContext 16.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
23% On target shareContext 50%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
59% Box shareContext 78%
7% ConversionContext 19%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50
11.50 Shots allowedContext 17.50
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.50 BlocksContext 4.00
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
57% Save rateContext 79%
48% PossessionIn forecast 41%
386 PassesContext 405
328 Accurate passesContext 345
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.89
12.00 FoulsContext 10.00
15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.77 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
70% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.90 ShotsContext 16.90
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
36% On target shareContext 43%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
67% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 16%
1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.20
3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
2.44 BlocksContext 3.80
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
68% Save rateContext 75%
51% PossessionIn forecast 50%
406 PassesContext 501
346 Accurate passesContext 446
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.98 Team ratingContext 7.13
13.90 FoulsContext 8.90
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AEK Athens FC
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • L14 OctA · Shakhtar Donetsk1–31.1 xPts
  • W8 SepH · Lask Linz1–01.7 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,369 km1,687 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
AEK Athens FC Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0High · 48
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,369 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km1,687 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 21 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one20.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AEK Athens FC Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 1–3, 14 Oct
91A. Brignoli(G)
3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota
11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer
9L. Jović 90Zine
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
AEK Athens FC No reported absences
Real Madrid No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • AEK Athens FC+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Real Madrid+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AEK Athens FC · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Real Madrid · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AEK Athens FCReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.003.00
Conceded per game 1.502.00
Match goals 2.505.00 3.30
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%100% 64%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%100% 61%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
AEK Athens FCReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.502.70
Conceded per game 0.751.20
Match goals 2.253.90 3.30
Over 1.5 50%80%
Over 2.5 50%80% 64%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 25%70% 61%
Clean sheets 75%20%
Failed to score 25%10%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AEK Athens FCReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.506.50
Corners conceded4.008.00
Match total8.5014.509.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards2.501.00
Opponent cards1.503.00
Match total4.004.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
AEK Athens FCReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won5.606.30
Corners conceded2.805.00
Match total8.4011.309.71
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.530% 3/1070% 7/10
Over 10.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.002.20
Opponent cards1.602.50
Match total3.604.703.80
Over 3.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 4.540% 4/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

AEK Athens FC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Real Madrid2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
AEK Athens FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
3 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

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