AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 16th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

VS— Compare

Ferencvarosi TC 7th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan are slight favourites.

AC Milan are the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 57). AC Milan come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. AC Milan have 4.9 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 14 and have to travel 787 km.

Away travel787 kmRest days4.9 · 14Matches / 14d4 · 0

AC Milan51%

Draw23%

Ferencvarosi TC26%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.38

AC Milan50%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

AC Milan51%

Draw23%

Ferencvarosi TC26%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.38

AC Milan43%

Draw24%

Ferencvarosi TC33%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.55

AC Milan54%

Draw22%

Ferencvarosi TC23%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.27

Over 2.5 66% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

AC Milan

Ferencvarosi TC

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

72 AttackIn forecast 61

69 DefenceIn forecast 56

74 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack−10%

Defense risk+14%

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Ferencvarosi TC

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.51 xGVia Att/Def —

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 13.00

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

47% On target shareContext 46%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

70% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 19%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 17.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.00 BlocksContext 6.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

67% Save rateContext 82%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

511 PassesContext 395

464 Accurate passesContext 321

91% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.00 FoulsContext 12.50

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.97 xGVia Att/Def —

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.20 ShotsContext —

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

38% On target shareContext 46%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext —

69% Box shareContext —

14% ConversionContext 19%

1.86 OffsidesContext —

11.70 Shots allowedContext —

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.44 BlocksContext 5.00

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext —

78% Save rateContext 82%

57% PossessionIn forecast 48%

556 PassesContext —

498 Accurate passesContext —

90% Pass accuracyContext —

6.98 Team ratingContext —

9.90 FoulsContext 14.75

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan LWDWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km2,656 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts

Ferencvarosi TC WW

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel787 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected

W15 OctH · Plzen2–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Celtic3–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 40	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Oct	14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	787 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,656 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 7	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	21.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot

Ferencvarosi TC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Plzen (H) 2–1, 15 Oct

63D. Radnóti(G)

20Cadu 4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 14A. Osváth

6Á. Nagy 17M. Corbu

7V. Birmančević 16K. Zachariassen 11B. Yusuf

76K. Lisztes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan No reported absences

Ferencvarosi TC No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ferencvarosi TC+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Ferencvarosi TC · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.50	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	65%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	AC Milan	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.10
Conceded per game	1.10	0.70
Match goals	3.00	2.80	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	65%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.00
Corners conceded	2.00	7.00
Match total	7.50	12.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	0.50
Match total	4.50	2.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	AC Milan	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	6.00
Corners conceded	3.10	6.25
Match total	6.80	12.25	9.76
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	100% 4/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	1.50
Match total	3.60	3.30	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.