UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 20:00 epet ARENA, Praha
Sparta Praha 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
AZ Alkmaar 20th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel728 kmRest days21.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Sparta Praha—%
Draw—%
AZ Alkmaar—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Praha)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sparta Praha and AZ Alkmaar. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sparta PrahaAZ Alkmaar
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 47
33 AttackIn forecast 52
34 DefenceIn forecast 49
— Form indexContext 43
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta PrahaAZ Alkmaar
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 2.07
1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+0.83 Goals minus xGContext -1.07
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
19.00 ShotsContext 12.50
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
42% On target shareContext 32%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
54% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 8%
1.50 OffsidesContext —
9.50 Shots allowedContext 13.00
2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.50 BlocksContext 3.00
1.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
50% Save rateContext 88%
55% PossessionIn forecast 57%
433 PassesContext 538
377 Accurate passesContext 451
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.78
14.50 FoulsContext 13.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.15 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.70 ShotsContext 16.90
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
34% On target shareContext 37%
7.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
65% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 12%
2.11 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.50 Shots allowedContext 9.70
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
3.44 BlocksContext 2.89
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30
77% Save rateContext 68%
53% PossessionIn forecast 59%
449 PassesContext 543
380 Accurate passesContext 466
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.87
11.90 FoulsContext 12.40
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Praha
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Lillestrom1–11.7 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Ararat-Armenia4–11.9 xPts
AZ Alkmaar
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel728 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sparta Praha AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov4.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km728 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 11 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one142.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Praha Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lillestrom (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
44J. Surovčík(G)
15V. Vitályos 6T. Guddal 19A. Ševínský 2M. Suchomel
20S. Mannsverk 18A. Irving
27E. Singhateh 38Hugo Sochurek 31M. Jurásek
14J. Braut Brunes
AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir
9M. Meerdink

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sparta Praha Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AZ Alkmaar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sparta Praha · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Sparta Praha wins0 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 19 Mar 2026Sparta Praha0–4AZ Alkmaar
  • 12 Mar 2026AZ Alkmaar2–1Sparta Praha

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Sparta PrahaAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 2.501.00
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 3.502.00
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Sparta PrahaAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 1.752.00
Conceded per game 1.501.20
Match goals 3.253.20
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 75%50%
Over 3.5 25%40%
Both teams scored 75%60%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 25%20%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sparta PrahaAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won9.505.00
Corners conceded1.505.00
Match total11.0010.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.503.00
Opponent cards2.503.50
Match total4.006.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Sparta PrahaAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won6.117.30
Corners conceded4.443.60
Match total10.5510.909.76
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.544% 4/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.601.70
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total3.303.603.76
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sparta Praha2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
AZ Alkmaar2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
1 3 76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
Marseille Levski Sofia Nov 2617:45 Celta Vigo Bournemouth Nov 2617:45 Besiktas Hapoel Beer Sheva Nov 2617:45 Olympiakos Piraeus AC Milan Nov 2617:45 Plzen Benfica Nov 2617:45 Red Bull Salzburg Ararat-Armenia Nov 2617:45 Dinamo Zagreb Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2617:45 Union St. Gilloise Lech Poznan Nov 2617:45 Crystal Palace Real Sociedad Nov 2620:00 Lyon Lillestrom Nov 2620:00 1899 Hoffenheim Sturm Graz Nov 2620:00 NEC Nijmegen Rennes Nov 2620:00 Juventus Omonia Nicosia Nov 2620:00 Sparta Praha AZ Alkmaar Nov 2620:00 Ferencvarosi TC Celje Nov 2620:00 Sunderland Jagiellonia Nov 2620:00 OFI Anderlecht Nov 2620:00 Torreense Celtic Nov 2620:00