UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 20:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Sunderland 9th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Jagiellonia 17th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,607 kmRest days5.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Sunderland—%
Draw—%
Jagiellonia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sunderland)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sunderland and Jagiellonia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SunderlandJagiellonia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
57 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
62 AttackIn forecast 27
59 DefenceIn forecast 28
56 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Jagiellonia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SunderlandJagiellonia
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
-0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.93
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.00 ShotsContext 9.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
21% On target shareContext 44%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext —
69% Box shareContext —
7% ConversionContext 22%
1.00 OffsidesContext 4.00
7.00 Shots allowedContext 19.00
1.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.50 BlocksContext 6.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
100% Save rateContext 70%
53% PossessionIn forecast 42%
401 PassesContext 363
329 Accurate passesContext 294
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.94
16.00 FoulsContext 16.50
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78
-0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.55
70% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.40 ShotsContext 14.00
4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
30% On target shareContext 49%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
65% Box shareContext 64%
8% ConversionContext 14%
2.33 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.40 Shots allowedContext 16.17
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
3.90 BlocksContext 5.22
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
52% Save rateContext 72%
49% PossessionIn forecast 47%
395 PassesContext 392
316 Accurate passesContext 319
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.98
12.70 FoulsContext 14.44
13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.44
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km543 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
  • W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts
Jagiellonia
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,607 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 45 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Ararat-Armenia3–12.3 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Olympiakos Piraeus1–20.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sunderland Jagiellonia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Nov21.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,607 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways543 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.813.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Jagiellonia Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Ararat-Armenia (H) 3–1, 15 Oct
50S. Abramowicz(G)
20B. Wdowik 4Y. Kobayashi 5Bernardo Vital 27Rodrigo Conceição
7K. Szmyt 19A. Klynge 6T. Romanczuk 72K. Jóźwiak
30O. Sow 11Jesús Imaz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sunderland Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Jagiellonia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Jagiellonia · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SunderlandJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 0.501.50
Match goals 2.003.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
SunderlandJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 1.102.17
Conceded per game 1.601.00
Match goals 2.703.17
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 40%83%
Over 3.5 10%33%
Both teams scored 50%83%
Clean sheets 20%17%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SunderlandJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won9.002.00
Corners conceded3.503.00
Match total12.505.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/20% 0/1
Over 9.5100% 2/20% 0/1
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/1
Cards
Cards3.003.00
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total4.505.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
SunderlandJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.404.29
Corners conceded3.804.43
Match total9.208.729.76
Over 8.540% 4/1057% 4/7
Over 9.540% 4/1057% 4/7
Over 10.540% 4/1014% 1/7
Cards
Cards2.601.70
Opponent cards2.002.50
Match total4.604.203.76
Over 3.560% 6/1090% 9/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sunderland2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
Jagiellonia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Jagiellonia10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
8 3 31-45
2 46-60
3 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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