UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 20:00 Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion
OFI 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Anderlecht 29th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,398 kmRest days21 · 4.1Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
OFI—%
Draw—%
Anderlecht—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heraklion)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OFI and Anderlecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

OFIAnderlecht
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
18 AttackIn forecast 37
25 DefenceIn forecast 52
— Form indexContext 59
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OFI

Attack—
Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OFIAnderlecht
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.29
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
— Goals minus xGContext -0.79
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
5.50 ShotsContext 11.50
2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
36% On target shareContext 48%
3.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
53% Box shareContext 68%
27% ConversionContext 4%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
23.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
6.00 BlocksContext 2.00
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
86% Save rateContext 77%
33% PossessionIn forecast 57%
263 PassesContext 519
173 Accurate passesContext 452
66% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.86
9.50 FoulsContext 13.50
18.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
0.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.95
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10
+0.84 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
80% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 60%
6.13 ShotsContext 11.88
2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
41% On target shareContext 38%
4.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
59% Box shareContext 61%
20% ConversionContext 8%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.50
18.00 Shots allowedContext 11.25
6.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
4.80 BlocksContext 1.90
5.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
86% Save rateContext 81%
45% PossessionIn forecast 60%
373 PassesContext 533
290 Accurate passesContext 459
78% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.93
11.10 FoulsContext 12.90
15.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OFI
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 3 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Rennes1–20.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00.9 xPts
Anderlecht
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,398 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OFI Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 11 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one142.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OFI Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rennes (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
31N. Christogeorgos(G)
2K. Krizmanić 43D. Nikolaou 15A. Poungouras
3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann
18T. Nuss 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas
Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OFI Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

OFI · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Anderlecht · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

OFIAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 1.500.50
Conceded per game 1.001.50
Match goals 2.502.00
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
OFIAnderlechtForecast
Scored per game 2.001.40
Conceded per game 0.500.70
Match goals 2.502.10
Over 1.5 100%60%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 25%20%
Clean sheets 75%60%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OFIAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won3.504.00
Corners conceded10.505.00
Match total14.009.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total4.503.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
OFIAnderlechtLeague
Corners
Corners won3.255.40
Corners conceded7.633.80
Match total10.889.209.76
Over 8.588% 7/860% 6/10
Over 9.575% 6/840% 4/10
Over 10.550% 4/810% 1/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards2.801.80
Match total4.604.003.76
Over 3.5100% 10/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OFI2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 2 76-90
Anderlecht2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
OFI10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 6 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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