UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen 27th · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Omonia Nicosia 6th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

NEC Nijmegen are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. NEC Nijmegen have 5 days of rest, Omonia Nicosia 13.9 and have to travel 2,860 km.

Away travel2,860 kmRest days5 · 13.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
NEC Nijmegen45%
Draw24%
Omonia Nicosia31%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.41
NEC Nijmegen43%
Draw27%
Omonia Nicosia30%
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.20
NEC Nijmegen45%
Draw24%
Omonia Nicosia31%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.41
NEC Nijmegen37%
Draw25%
Omonia Nicosia38%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.58
NEC Nijmegen44%
Draw25%
Omonia Nicosia31%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.39
Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosia
32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33
32 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
37 AttackIn forecast 34
33 DefenceIn forecast 41
18 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack−12%
Defense risk−1%

Omonia Nicosia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosia
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.23
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03
— Goals minus xGContext +0.77
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 100%
14.50 ShotsContext 12.50
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
41% On target shareContext 44%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
53% Box shareContext 42%
3% ConversionContext 16%
— OffsidesContext 1.00
9.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
2.00 BlocksContext 5.50
1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
33% Save rateContext 86%
52% PossessionIn forecast 43%
493 PassesContext 454
423 Accurate passesContext 385
86% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.37 Team ratingContext 7.22
16.50 FoulsContext 6.50
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93
-0.84 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
70% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.00 ShotsContext 13.25
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25
32% On target shareContext 40%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.25
59% Box shareContext 60%
9% ConversionContext 9%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.25
12.70 Shots allowedContext 13.25
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.80 BlocksContext 3.50
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
59% Save rateContext 69%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
442 PassesContext 386
358 Accurate passesContext 314
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.44 Team ratingContext 6.67
11.70 FoulsContext 9.71
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.43
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km249 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts
Omonia Nicosia
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,860 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 73 · 6 pts vs 3.3 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
  • W15 OctA · Celje3–01.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celta Vigo1–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
NEC Nijmegen Omonia Nicosia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,860 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways249 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 60 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.121.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen
Omonia Nicosia Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Celje (A) 3–0, 15 Oct
40Fabiano(G)
29J. Balkovec 37Ľ. Šatka 5S. Coulibaly 93J. Duverne
14M. Marić 22M. Tankovic 74P. Andreou
7J. Montnor 99L. Diony 11Ewandro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
NEC Nijmegen No reported absences
Omonia Nicosia No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Omonia Nicosia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Omonia Nicosia · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

NEC NijmegenOmonia NicosiaForecast
Scored per game 0.502.00
Conceded per game 3.000.00
Match goals 3.502.00 3.16
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 61%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%0% 63%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
NEC NijmegenOmonia NicosiaForecast
Scored per game 1.101.38
Conceded per game 2.200.63
Match goals 3.302.00 3.16
Over 1.5 100%38%
Over 2.5 70%25% 61%
Over 3.5 50%13%
Both teams scored 70%25% 63%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 30%25%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NEC NijmegenOmonia NicosiaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.50
Corners conceded1.006.00
Match total7.0010.509.76
Over 8.50% 0/1100% 2/2
Over 9.50% 0/150% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/150% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards0.502.50
Match total1.503.503.76
Over 3.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
NEC NijmegenOmonia NicosiaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.29
Corners conceded3.884.86
Match total7.889.159.76
Over 8.538% 3/871% 5/7
Over 9.525% 2/829% 2/7
Over 10.525% 2/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards1.403.10
Match total2.905.303.76
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.50% 0/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

NEC Nijmegen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
Omonia Nicosia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90
Omonia Nicosia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2 0-15
4 16-30
2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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