Marseille vs Levski Sofia

UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 17:45 Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Levski Sofia 25th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,458 kmRest days3.9 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0

Real contextStrength only

Marseille—%

Draw—%

Levski Sofia—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Marseille)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Marseille

Levski Sofia

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

48 AttackIn forecast 24

46 DefenceIn forecast 26

41 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levski Sofia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Marseille

Levski Sofia

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

32% On target shareContext 9%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

62% Box shareContext 76%

4% ConversionContext 5%

— OffsidesContext —

13.50 Shots allowedContext 15.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.00

3.50 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 7.00

55% Save rateContext 88%

51% PossessionIn forecast 48%

488 PassesContext 455

423 Accurate passesContext 379

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.40 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.50 FoulsContext 11.50

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 17.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.83 xGVia Att/Def —

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.50

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

38% On target shareContext 20%

9.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

63% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.00

16.20 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

4.78 BlocksContext 4.40

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

70% Save rateContext 80%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

547 PassesContext 460

481 Accurate passesContext 392

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.20 FoulsContext 10.80

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Marseille LLWLW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Levski Sofia LD

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,458 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D15 OctA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.0 xPts
L17 SepH · Red Bull Salzburg0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Marseille	Levski Sofia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Nov	21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,458 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Levski Sofia Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 1–1, 15 Oct

92S. Vutsov(G)

3Maicon 4C. Makoun 50K. Dimitrov 21Aldair

19E. El Moubarik 8M. Grujić 35Serginho

17Everton Bala 7Reinaldo 27D. Kusso

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Marseille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Levski Sofia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Marseille · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Levski Sofia · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Marseille	Levski Sofia
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	1.00
Match goals	3.00	1.50
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	0%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Marseille	Levski Sofia
Scored per game	1.80	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	0.90
Match goals	3.40	2.00
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	60%	30%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Marseille	Levski Sofia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.00
Corners conceded	2.00	5.00
Match total	8.50	8.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	0.50
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	3.50	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Marseille	Levski Sofia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	3.50
Corners conceded	4.50	4.83
Match total	9.20	8.33	9.76
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	3.80	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.