UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 17:45 Doosan Aréna, Plzeň
Plzen 32nd · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,150 kmRest days21 · 17.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Plzen—%
Draw—%
Benfica—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Plzeň)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Plzen and Benfica. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

PlzenBenfica
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
54 AttackIn forecast 81
43 DefenceIn forecast 81
— Form indexContext 85
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Plzen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PlzenBenfica
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.62
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
— Goals minus xGContext +1.38
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.00 ShotsContext 18.50
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
38% On target shareContext 30%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
59% Box shareContext 63%
3% ConversionContext 16%
— OffsidesContext 2.50
17.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50
9.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.00 BlocksContext 2.00
7.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
74% Save rateContext 91%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
432 PassesContext 477
339 Accurate passesContext 424
79% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.41 Team ratingContext 7.38
14.00 FoulsContext 10.50
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 4.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
0.97 xGVia Att/Def 2.03
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.67
60% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.88 ShotsContext 18.13
4.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
32% On target shareContext 32%
8.13 Shots in the boxContext 13.00
56% Box shareContext 71%
5% ConversionContext 15%
1.25 OffsidesContext 2.17
14.25 Shots allowedContext 9.88
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
3.50 BlocksContext 2.56
4.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57
81% Save rateContext 75%
48% PossessionIn forecast 60%
404 PassesContext 538
314 Accurate passesContext 472
78% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.16
14.10 FoulsContext 11.00
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Plzen
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Ferencvarosi TC1–20.9 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.4 xPts
Benfica
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,150 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
  • W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
  • W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Plzen Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov17.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,150 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one14.14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Plzen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ferencvarosi TC (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
1D. Ťapaj(G)
14Merchas Doski 98F. Prebsl 40S. Dweh 29A. Gabriel
17P. Hrošovský 36S. Pirgic
99Amar Memić 20J. Panoš 12A. Sojka
25C. Kabongo
Benfica Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah
36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio
22J. Durán

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Plzen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Benfica Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Plzen · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
3.00
Benfica · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PlzenBenficaForecast
Scored per game 0.503.00
Conceded per game 2.500.50
Match goals 3.003.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
PlzenBenficaForecast
Scored per game 1.102.70
Conceded per game 1.300.80
Match goals 2.403.50
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PlzenBenficaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.50
Corners conceded4.007.50
Match total8.0012.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.504.00
Opponent cards2.000.50
Match total3.504.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
PlzenBenficaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.336.38
Corners conceded4.444.25
Match total8.7710.639.76
Over 8.567% 6/963% 5/8
Over 9.556% 5/963% 5/8
Over 10.522% 2/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.202.40
Opponent cards3.302.20
Match total5.504.603.76
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Plzen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
1 1 76-90
Benfica2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
3 1 0-15
5 16-30
5 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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