UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 20:00 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Sturm Graz 26th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel544 kmRest days5.2 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Draw—%
Sturm Graz—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sinsheim)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and Sturm Graz. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

1899 HoffenheimSturm Graz
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
46 AttackIn forecast 32
43 DefenceIn forecast 37
15 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sturm Graz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1899 HoffenheimSturm Graz
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 0.53
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.27
— Goals minus xGContext -0.53
50% Scored inContext 0%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.00 ShotsContext 8.50
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
24% On target shareContext 29%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
66% Box shareContext 65%
6% ConversionContext 0%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
14.00 Shots allowedContext 23.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.50 BlocksContext 6.50
1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
38% Save rateContext 62%
60% PossessionIn forecast 38%
506 PassesContext 289
418 Accurate passesContext 197
83% Pass accuracyContext 68%
6.39 Team ratingContext 6.42
20.50 FoulsContext 15.00
8.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
80% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.60 ShotsContext 15.50
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
28% On target shareContext 30%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.40
62% Box shareContext 61%
8% ConversionContext 9%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.14
12.90 Shots allowedContext 14.60
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.10 BlocksContext 3.50
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
50% Save rateContext 76%
59% PossessionIn forecast 45%
515 PassesContext 317
426 Accurate passesContext 236
83% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.90
14.00 FoulsContext 13.10
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km194 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
Sturm Graz
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel544 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 39 · 1 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Bournemouth0–30.5 xPts
  • D16 SepH · Rennes0–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim Sturm Graz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways194 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.913.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Sturm Graz Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–3, 15 Oct
53D. Khudyakov(G)
27L. Balbo 21P. Petrović 2J. Quarshie 23A. Malić 28Jurgen Heil
43J. Hödl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 78V. Matoshi
26B. Beganović 19Simon Seidl

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sturm Graz Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00
Sturm Graz · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

1899 HoffenheimSturm GrazForecast
Scored per game 1.000.00
Conceded per game 2.501.50
Match goals 3.501.50
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%0%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%100%
Games22
1899 HoffenheimSturm GrazForecast
Scored per game 1.400.80
Conceded per game 2.301.20
Match goals 3.702.00
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 80%40%
Over 3.5 60%10%
Both teams scored 70%10%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 20%60%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 HoffenheimSturm GrazLeague
Corners
Corners won7.504.00
Corners conceded4.505.50
Match total12.009.509.76
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards3.503.00
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total5.004.503.76
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/250% 1/2
1899 HoffenheimSturm GrazLeague
Corners
Corners won7.105.10
Corners conceded4.205.30
Match total11.3010.409.76
Over 8.5100% 10/1070% 7/10
Over 9.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.701.80
Opponent cards1.401.30
Match total4.103.103.76
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Sturm Graz2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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