UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Vivacom Arena – Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Levski Sofia 25th · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Jagiellonia 17th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Levski Sofia are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levski Sofia. Levski Sofia have 13.9 days of rest, Jagiellonia 13.9 and have to travel 1,160 km.

Away travel1,160 kmRest days13.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Levski Sofia43%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia32%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.43
Levski Sofia40%
Draw27%
Jagiellonia33%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26
Levski Sofia43%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia32%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.43
Levski Sofia35%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia40%
Expected goals 1.49 – 1.60
Levski Sofia43%
Draw25%
Jagiellonia32%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.40
Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sofia)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Levski SofiaJagiellonia
26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
24 AttackIn forecast 27
26 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levski Sofia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Jagiellonia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levski SofiaJagiellonia
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.07
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
— Goals minus xGContext +0.93
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.00 ShotsContext 9.00
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
9% On target shareContext 44%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext —
76% Box shareContext —
5% ConversionContext 22%
— OffsidesContext 4.00
15.00 Shots allowedContext 19.00
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.50 BlocksContext 6.00
7.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
88% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 42%
455 PassesContext 363
379 Accurate passesContext 294
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.50 FoulsContext 16.50
17.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
0.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.55
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78
— Goals minus xGContext +0.55
70% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.50 ShotsContext 14.00
2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
20% On target shareContext 49%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
59% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 14%
1.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
14.00 Shots allowedContext 16.17
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
4.40 BlocksContext 5.22
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
80% Save rateContext 72%
51% PossessionIn forecast 47%
460 PassesContext 392
392 Accurate passesContext 319
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.98
10.80 FoulsContext 14.44
15.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.44
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levski Sofia
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,188 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D15 OctA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.0 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Red Bull Salzburg0–11.3 xPts
Jagiellonia
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,160 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 45 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Ararat-Armenia3–12.3 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Olympiakos Piraeus1–20.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Levski Sofia Jagiellonia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,160 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,188 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one2121.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levski Sofia Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 1–1, 15 Oct
92S. Vutsov(G)
3Maicon 4C. Makoun 50K. Dimitrov 21Aldair
19E. El Moubarik 8M. Grujić 35Serginho
17Everton Bala 7Reinaldo 27D. Kusso
Jagiellonia Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Ararat-Armenia (H) 3–1, 15 Oct
50S. Abramowicz(G)
20B. Wdowik 4Y. Kobayashi 5Bernardo Vital 27Rodrigo Conceição
7K. Szmyt 19A. Klynge 6T. Romanczuk 72K. Jóźwiak
30O. Sow 11Jesús Imaz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Levski Sofia No reported absences
Jagiellonia No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Levski Sofia+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Jagiellonia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Levski Sofia · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00
Jagiellonia · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Levski SofiaJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 0.502.00
Conceded per game 1.001.50
Match goals 1.503.50 3.10
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 60%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%100% 62%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Levski SofiaJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 1.102.17
Conceded per game 0.901.00
Match goals 2.003.17 3.10
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 30%83% 60%
Over 3.5 30%33%
Both teams scored 30%83% 62%
Clean sheets 50%17%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Levski SofiaJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.002.00
Corners conceded5.003.00
Match total8.005.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/20% 0/1
Over 9.50% 0/20% 0/1
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/1
Cards
Cards0.503.00
Opponent cards3.002.00
Match total3.505.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Levski SofiaJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.504.29
Corners conceded4.834.43
Match total8.338.729.76
Over 8.567% 4/657% 4/7
Over 9.517% 1/657% 4/7
Over 10.517% 1/614% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.401.70
Opponent cards2.102.50
Match total3.504.203.76
Over 3.540% 4/1090% 9/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Levski Sofia2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Jagiellonia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 76-90
Jagiellonia10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
8 3 31-45
2 46-60
3 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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