FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 30th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

PSV Eindhoven 26th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto are slight favourites.

FC Porto are the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. PSV Eindhoven are without G. Til and P. Wanner. FC Porto have 6 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 3.2 and have to travel 1,570 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,570 kmRest days6 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 3

FC Porto58%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven20%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.13

FC Porto49%

Draw26%

PSV Eindhoven25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

FC Porto56%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven21%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.16

FC Porto50%

Draw24%

PSV Eindhoven26%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.27

FC Porto58%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven20%

Expected goals 2.00 – 1.09

Over 2.5 62% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

15°COvercast

Precipitation 0%
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 77%

Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 136

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

FC Porto

PSV Eindhoven

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

74 AttackIn forecast 60

79 DefenceIn forecast 64

84 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack−16%

Defense risk+33%

PSV Eindhoven

Attack−42%

Defense risk+53%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

FC Porto

PSV Eindhoven

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.55 xGVia Att/Def —

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.00 ShotsContext 9.50

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

31% On target shareContext 37%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

75% Box shareContext 51%

13% ConversionContext 5%

— OffsidesContext 3.00

18.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 4.50

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 88%

40% PossessionIn forecast 56%

373 PassesContext 430

303 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.50 FoulsContext 13.00

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 2.27

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 17.30

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

39% On target shareContext 38%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

72% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 15%

3.25 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.80 BlocksContext 3.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

74% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 58%

416 PassesContext 526

351 Accurate passesContext 464

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.60 FoulsContext 10.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WWWWL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,343 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

PSV Eindhoven WLWLL

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,570 km957 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct	3.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,570 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,343 km	957 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano

35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man

21S. Mijnans

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals

Attack line −7.2% · Defence line −0.2% of weighted minutes

ATT William Gomes Rotation 6.94 Att −7.2%
DEF D. Prpić Depth 6.63 Def −0.2%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): Gabriel Mec, Vasco Sousa

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −28.2% · Defence line −17.7% of weighted minutes

MID G. Til Starter 6.93 Att −10.3% Def −7.0%
MID P. Wanner Starter 6.92 Att −8.0% Def −5.4%
MID J. Schouten Rotation 6.97 Att −3.7% Def −2.5%
ATT R. Pepi Rotation 6.97 Att −6.0%
DEF K. Sildillia Rotation 6.67 Def −2.7%
ATT A. Pléa Depth 6.70 Att −0.1%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+1.8 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
PSV Eindhoven-1.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

PSV Eindhoven · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	1.00
Match goals	3.50	1.50	3.19
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	2.60
Conceded per game	0.90	1.20
Match goals	3.10	3.80	3.19
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	62%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	1.50	6.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.00
Match total	6.50	10.00	9.71
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	3.50	3.50
Match total	5.50	6.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.44
Corners conceded	3.90	3.89
Match total	9.60	9.33	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	3.60	4.30	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 136 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 3.64

Red cards0.21league 0.14

Cards 5+51%league 36%

Fouls23.1league 23.0

Penalties0.27league 0.28

Home wins43%league 58%

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Jan 26A · Newcastle0–34
W21 Oct 25H · Napoli6–24
L11 Feb 25A · Juventus1–21
W8 Nov 23H · Lens1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.