Everton
Attack+17%
Defense risk−21%
Our take
Everton are slight favourites.
Everton are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Coventry. Everton have 4 days of rest, Coventry 6.2 and have to travel 149 km.
Away travel149 kmRest days4 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Everton53%
Draw23%
Coventry24%
Everton53%
Draw25%
Coventry22%
Everton53%
Draw23%
Coventry24%
Everton45%
Draw25%
Coventry31%
Everton52%
Draw24%
Coventry24%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 13 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
Forecast from 22 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Everton and Coventry. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Coventry
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Coventry
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EvertonCoventry
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
61
AttackIn forecast
47
66
DefenceIn forecast
59
50
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCoventry
Attack+7%
Defense risk−11%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
EvertonCoventry
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
71%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.43
ShotsContext
10.29
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
35%
On target shareContext
32%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
68%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.71
Shots allowedContext
17.43
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
5.00
BlocksContext
6.83
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
70%
Save rateContext
46%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
433
PassesContext
323
361
Accurate passesContext
247
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.74
7.43
FoulsContext
11.00
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
33%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
70%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.40
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.44
BlocksContext
5.78
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
49%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
414
PassesContext
380
342
Accurate passesContext
304
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.70
FoulsContext
9.70
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
DDWDL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km963 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Coventry
LLWWL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel149 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Coventry |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Nov | 6.2Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 149 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 963 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 17 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Coventry
Last XI · not confirmed
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante
5J. Rudoni
7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
No reported absences
Coventry
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Coventry+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Coventry · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Tottenham | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.86 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Everton | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.86 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 57% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 29% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 57% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.42 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.72 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Everton | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 7.78 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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