Premier League Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 8 · 14:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Brighton are slight favourites.

Brighton are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 75). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Brighton have 8 days of rest, Brentford 8 and have to travel 71 km.

Away travel71 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brighton58%
Draw21%
Brentford21%
Expected goals 2.21 – 1.28
Brighton50%
Draw26%
Brentford25%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09
Brighton58%
Draw21%
Brentford21%
Expected goals 2.21 – 1.28
Brighton50%
Draw23%
Brentford28%
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.44
Brighton56%
Draw22%
Brentford22%
Expected goals 2.03 – 1.21
Over 2.5 68% Both score 65% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Brighton and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BrightonBrentford
82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75
83 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
87 AttackIn forecast 73
85 DefenceIn forecast 73
94 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack−1%
Defense risk0%

Brentford

Attack−11%
Defense risk+23%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

BrightonBrentford
3.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
2.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.73
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+1.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
100% Scored inContext 100%
71% Clean sheetsContext 29%
17.86 ShotsContext 15.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
34% On target shareContext 28%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.43
61% Box shareContext 76%
18% ConversionContext 12%
3.50 OffsidesContext 1.60
10.71 Shots allowedContext 15.43
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.67 BlocksContext 4.43
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
70% Save rateContext 71%
60% PossessionIn forecast 45%
509 PassesContext 367
434 Accurate passesContext 283
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.25 Team ratingContext 6.85
12.86 FoulsContext 14.71
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.29
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.59 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.10 ShotsContext 13.40
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
34% On target shareContext 27%
11.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
65% Box shareContext 74%
15% ConversionContext 12%
2.57 OffsidesContext 1.71
9.80 Shots allowedContext 17.30
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
3.25 BlocksContext 5.30
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
72% Save rateContext 72%
61% PossessionIn forecast 45%
518 PassesContext 369
442 Accurate passesContext 286
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.70 FoulsContext 13.30
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts
Brentford
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel71 km502 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Brighton Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct8Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km71 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,343 km502 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 30 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1415.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Brentford Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara
9Thiago

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Brighton No reported absences
Brentford No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Brighton+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Brentford+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.25
Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentBrightonBrentford
Sunderland W 2–0 A D 1–1 H
Leeds D 1–1 H D 1–1 A
Chelsea L 3–4 A W 3–0 H
Aston Villa W 4–0 H D 2–2 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Brighton wins3 draws2 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.10 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 30%
  • 21 Feb 2026Brentford0–2Brighton
  • 22 Nov 2025Brighton2–1Brentford
  • 19 Apr 2025Brentford4–2Brighton
  • 27 Dec 2024Brighton0–0Brentford
  • 3 Apr 2024Brentford0–0Brighton
  • 6 Dec 2023Brighton2–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BrightonBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 3.291.86
Conceded per game 0.711.14
Match goals 4.003.00 3.49
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 71%71% 68%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 29%71% 65%
Clean sheets 71%29%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games77
BrightonBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 2.601.60
Conceded per game 0.901.40
Match goals 3.503.00 3.49
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 70%70% 68%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 20%70% 65%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BrightonBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won5.713.86
Corners conceded5.005.14
Match total10.719.009.51
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 10.571% 5/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.293.00
Opponent cards1.571.86
Match total3.864.864.18
Over 3.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
BrightonBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.114.00
Corners conceded4.786.40
Match total10.8910.409.51
Over 8.567% 6/970% 7/10
Over 9.567% 6/970% 7/10
Over 10.567% 6/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.702.70
Opponent cards1.502.20
Match total3.204.904.18
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Brighton7 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
4 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
16-30
4 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
6 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
16-30
5 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Everton Coventry Nov 620:00 Leeds Tottenham Nov 712:30 Fulham Newcastle Nov 715:00 Arsenal Hull City Nov 715:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester City Nov 717:30 Brighton Brentford Nov 814:00 Crystal Palace Liverpool Nov 814:00 Ipswich Bournemouth Nov 814:00 Sunderland Chelsea Nov 814:00 Manchester United Aston Villa Nov 816:30