Sunderland
Attack+34%
Defense risk−31%
Our take
Sunderland are slight favourites.
Sunderland are the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sunderland. Sunderland have 5.2 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 14.1 and have to travel 1,586 km.
Away travel1,586 kmRest days5.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d2 · 0
Sunderland59%
Draw22%
Dinamo Zagreb19%
Sunderland52%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb23%
Sunderland59%
Draw22%
Dinamo Zagreb19%
Sunderland51%
Draw24%
Dinamo Zagreb26%
Sunderland58%
Draw22%
Dinamo Zagreb19%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
Forecast from 21 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Dinamo Zagreb
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Dinamo Zagreb
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Dinamo Zagreb
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Dinamo Zagreb
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Dinamo Zagreb
−0.38
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.20xG against1.58
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SunderlandDinamo Zagreb
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
62
AttackIn forecast
33
59
DefenceIn forecast
44
56
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandDinamo Zagreb
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
2.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
21.00
ShotsContext
10.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
21%
On target shareContext
20%
14.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
5%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
7.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.50
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
100%
Save rateContext
100%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
401
PassesContext
410
329
Accurate passesContext
338
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
16.00
FoulsContext
17.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
17.50
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
23%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
65%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.90
BlocksContext
5.83
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
52%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
395
PassesContext
537
316
Accurate passesContext
454
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.70
FoulsContext
12.22
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,586 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Dinamo Zagreb
Last XI · not confirmed
24D. Kotarski(G)
22M. Vinlöf
6S. Radeljić
36Sergi Domínguez
15N. Galešić
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha
17L. Ivanušec
10L. Stojković
23Iker Almena
9D. Beljo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
No reported absences
Dinamo Zagreb
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dinamo Zagreb+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 8.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Sunderland | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.67 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sunderland2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb2 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheim
Nov 517:45
Rennes
Olympiakos Piraeus
Nov 517:45
Lillestrom
Plzen
Nov 517:45
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
Nov 517:45
AC Milan
Ferencvarosi TC
Nov 517:45
Real Sociedad
Lyon
Nov 517:45
Anderlecht
Red Bull Salzburg
Nov 517:45
Sparta Praha
Bournemouth
Nov 517:45
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia
Nov 517:45
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
Nov 520:00
AZ Alkmaar
Juventus
Nov 520:00
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Nov 520:00
Celtic
Besiktas
Nov 520:00
Celta Vigo
Union St. Gilloise
Nov 520:00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
OFI
Nov 520:00
Sturm Graz
Celje
Nov 520:00
Sunderland
Dinamo Zagreb
Nov 520:00
Torreense
Ararat-Armenia
Nov 520:00