Lech Poznan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sunderland are slight favourites.
Sunderland are the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sunderland. Lech Poznan have 7 days of rest, Sunderland 4.2 and have to travel 1,234 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,234 kmRest days7 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3
Lech Poznan26%
Draw22%
Sunderland52%
Lech Poznan31%
Draw27%
Sunderland43%
Lech Poznan26%
Draw22%
Sunderland52%
Lech Poznan19%
Draw20%
Sunderland61%
Lech Poznan26%
Draw22%
Sunderland52%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Poznań)
10°COvercast
- Precipitation 42%
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 81%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Lech Poznan and Sunderland. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Lech Poznan
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Lech Poznan
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lech Poznan
−1.95
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against3.01
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Lech Poznan
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Lech Poznan
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lech Poznan
−1.95
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against3.01
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Lech PoznanSunderland
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
35
AttackIn forecast
62
23
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack+68%
Defense risk−30%
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lech PoznanSunderland
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
4.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
21.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
21%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.50
41%
Box shareContext
69%
0%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
19.00
Shots allowedContext
7.00
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
56%
Save rateContext
100%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
433
PassesContext
401
353
Accurate passesContext
329
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.05
Team ratingContext
6.92
6.00
FoulsContext
16.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
3.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+1.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.71
ShotsContext
14.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
41%
On target shareContext
30%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
56%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.57
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.10
BlocksContext
3.90
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
56%
Save rateContext
52%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
443
PassesContext
395
367
Accurate passesContext
316
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.00
FoulsContext
12.70
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lech Poznan
LL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,234 km4,481 km in 14d
Schedule load37%Moderate
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lech Poznan |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 37 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,234 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 4,481 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lech Poznan
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul
27W. Mońka
72M. Skrzypczak
2Joel Pereira
43A. Kozubal
5K. Berggren
14E. Bengtsson
9M. Ishak
10J. Wålemark
77L. Palma
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lech Poznan
No reported absences
Sunderland
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Lech Poznan+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lech Poznan · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Sunderland · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lech Poznan | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lech Poznan | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 2.70 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 40% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 30% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lech Poznan | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 12.50 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Lech Poznan | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.20 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lech Poznan2 games · scored 0 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Sunderland2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Lech Poznan9 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
8
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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