Estac Troyes

17th · Ligue 1 · 4 points · Matches played: 7

10 points behind Lyon · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

+2.1 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -2.7 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 11.9+2.1
World Rank 482nd Global, by Elo
Ligue 1 Rank 18th L90 Strength
Last LensH xG 0.9–1.6 1–3 Next ToulouseA 12%

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Upcoming fixtures

Estac Troyes · All competitions

Forecast
ToulouseLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away 12% win 0.54 xPts Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home 34% win 1.30 xPts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away 1% win 0.07 xPts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MarseilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts ToulouseLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Estac Troyes · All competitions

Full time
LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 1–3 0.9–1.6 xG -0.6 Δpts MarseilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 0–2 1.2–1.3 xG -0.9 Δpts AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away L 0–2 — xG -0.9 Δpts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away L 0–2 — xG -0.4 Δpts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 2–6 — xG -1.1 Δpts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away W 2–1 1.6–1.1 xG +2.3 Δpts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home D 0–0 0.4–1.8 xG -0.1 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Estac Troyes first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 6

Rest profile6.9 days since last match
0%
Schedule load2 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel load561 km to venue, 0 km in 14 days
20%
Squad availability4 out, 1 key: A. Ouzenadji · Last match: 17 Oct
9%

Load before the next match, at Toulouse, 24 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 22 Aug vs Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 76/100
D
 Aug 29 Aug at Lorient: Schedule difficulty 41/100; match difficulty 76/100
W
 6 Sep vs Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 83/100
L
 Sep 13 Sep at Lille: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 87/100
L
 19 Sep at Angers: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 61/100
L
 11 Oct vs Marseille: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 84/100
L
 Oct 17 Oct vs Lens: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 88/100
L
 24 Oct at Toulouse: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 79/100 31 Oct vs Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 69/100 7 Nov at Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 49/100; match difficulty 97/100 Nov 20 Nov vs LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 63/100 28 Nov at Nice: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 70/100 5 Dec vs Lyon: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 89/100 Dec 12 Dec at Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 41/100; match difficulty 76/100 2 Jan vs Rennes: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 86/100 Jan 16 Jan at Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 73/100 23 Jan vs Monaco: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 88/100 30 Jan at Marseille: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 84/100 6 Feb vs Lille: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 87/100 Feb 13 Feb at Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 76/100 20 Feb at Lens: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 88/100 27 Feb vs Nice: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 70/100 6 Mar vs Lorient: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 76/100 Mar 13 Mar at Lyon: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 89/100 20 Mar vs Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 73/100 3 Apr at LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 63/100 Apr 10 Apr vs Angers: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 61/100 17 Apr at Rennes: Schedule difficulty 46/100; match difficulty 86/100 24 Apr vs Toulouse: Schedule difficulty 40/100; match difficulty 79/100 1 May vs Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 76/100 May 8 May at Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 69/100 16 May at Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 83/100 22 May vs Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 49/100; match difficulty 97/100 29 May at Monaco: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 88/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest6.9 daysbefore TOU
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel / 14d0 kmaway trips
Schedule load6%Low
at ToulouseSat 24 Oct, 16:15 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 39 12%win19%draw69%loss Low load · 6.9 d rest vs Le MansSat 31 Oct, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 26 34%win26%draw39%loss Low load · 7.2 d rest at Paris Saint GermainSat 7 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 89 1%win4%draw95%loss Low load · 7 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → at Toulouse, 24 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

2 of 3 forecasts available · Partial window

Attack Swing+8%

Baseline 2.04 → Forecast 2.21 expected goals · 2 included matches

Conceding Swing−6%

Baseline 4.01 → Forecast 3.75 expected goals conceded · 2 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
at Toulouse24 Oct · Ligue 1 2026-2027 −8% +2% 0.90 → 0.83
vs Le Mans31 Oct · Ligue 1 2026-2027 +22% −16% 1.13 → 1.38
at Paris Saint Germain7 Nov · Ligue 1 2026-2027 — — Opportunity unavailable

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Estac Troyes

Baseline: average Ligue 1 opponent

Attack Downlift −8% Expected goals Baseline0.90Forecast0.83
Conceding Risk +2% Expected goals conceded Baseline2.22Forecast2.26
Clean Sheet −0.4 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline10.8%Forecast10.4%