Insights.
Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.
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Explore competitions →League insights
Premier League · 74 signals · 20 clubs in this view
Manchester UnitedChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score71/100
A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.
- Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - −5.8
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.26
- Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 1.6
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 62.1
- Recency
- 64.5
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 63.3
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 10; xPts 15.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
ArsenalDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score68/100
Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.
- Clean sheetsLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 6/9
- Goals conceded / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 0.6
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.71
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 76.2
- Recency
- 48.4
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 65.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Clean sheets — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Goals conceded / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
BrightonWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score68/100
A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.
- Wins in a rowLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 4
- Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +4.6
- Goals scored / matchLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 3.3
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.74
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 62.8
- Recency
- 64.5
- Context
- 100.0
- Quality
- 51.7
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Points minus expected — Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.01; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Manchester CityGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score59/100
Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.
- Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions - 2.6
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - +0.77
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 51.3
- Recency
- 46.8
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 65.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.16; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
ChelseaPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score52/100
Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.
- Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games - +3.7
- Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages - −0.30
Sources, limitations & score
- Deviation
- 46.3
- Recency
- 46.8
- Context
- 80.0
- Quality
- 42.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
- Points minus expected — Points 13; xPts 9.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.5. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.
All signals74 signals · 20 clubs
Select a row to explore the evidence. Scroll to see all columns →
Brighton
Clean sheets
5
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores73
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 77.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | No |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Brighton
Clean sheets in a row
4
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak58
Consecutive matches without conceding start with the latest recorded result. Any goal conceded ends the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 35.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Clean sheets in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | No |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Arsenal
Clean sheets
6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores77
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 76.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Arsenal’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CoventryH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston VillaA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ChelseaH | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-09-09 | NapoliA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | BrightonA | 0–3L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | LeedsH | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-10-13 | LilleH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W | Yes |
Arsenal
Goals conceded per match
0.6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores62
This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 33.7
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Arsenal’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CoventryH | 3–0W |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston VillaA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-06 | ChelseaH | 2–1W |
| 2026-09-09 | NapoliA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-12 | SunderlandA | 2–0W |
| 2026-09-19 | BrightonA | 0–3L |
| 2026-10-10 | LeedsH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-13 | LilleH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W |
Brighton
Goals scored per match
3.3
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores68
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 62.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W |
Crystal Palace
Goals conceded away per match
2.4
Last 5 recorded away matches
Scores54
An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.
Recorded scores · away only · Last 5 recorded away matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 27.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 62.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Sunderland
Goals conceded away per match
2.2
Last 5 recorded away matches
Scores52
An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.
Recorded scores · away only · Last 5 recorded away matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 22.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 62.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 5 recorded away matches
Oldest → newest · scores from Sunderland’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | IpswichA | 1–2L |
| 2026-09-05 | BrentfordA | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-20 | Manchester CityA | 3–5L |
| 2026-10-15 | TorreenseA | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-18 | BournemouthA | 0–2L |
Manchester City
Scoring in a row
9
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak80
The club has scored in consecutive recorded matches, starting with the latest result. One goal is enough to extend the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 86.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Manchester City’s perspective. Event: Scoring in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BournemouthH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal PalaceA | 4–1W | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | CoventryH | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | FC PortoA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester UnitedA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-20 | SunderlandH | 5–3W | Yes |
| 2026-10-11 | LiverpoolA | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-14 | Paris Saint GermainH | 2–4L | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | IpswichH | 3–2W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Manchester United
Points below expected
−5.8
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast66
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 10; xPts 15.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 62.1
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 15.8
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Wins in a row
4
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak58
Consecutive wins start with the latest recorded result. A draw or defeat ends the run within the available window.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 35.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Wins in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | No |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Goals conceded per match
0.7
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores55
This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 25.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W |
Arsenal
Points above expected
+5.0
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
Arsenal
+5.0
Points above expected
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Points24.0xPts19.0
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 24; xPts 19. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 53.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 24.0
- xPts
- 19.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Manchester City
Goals scored per match
2.6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores64
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 41.7
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Manchester City’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BournemouthH | 2–1W |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal PalaceA | 4–1W |
| 2026-09-05 | CoventryH | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-08 | FC PortoA | 2–0W |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester UnitedA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-20 | SunderlandH | 5–3W |
| 2026-10-11 | LiverpoolA | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-14 | Paris Saint GermainH | 2–4L |
| 2026-10-17 | IpswichH | 3–2W |
Arsenal
Wins in a row
3
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak60
Consecutive wins start with the latest recorded result. A draw or defeat ends the run within the available window.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 28.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Arsenal’s perspective. Event: Wins in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CoventryH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston VillaA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ChelseaH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | NapoliA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | BrightonA | 0–3L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | LeedsH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-13 | LilleH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Manchester City
Points above expected
+5.0
8/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 8/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 21; xPts 16. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.7
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 48.9
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
8/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 21.0
- xPts
- 16.0
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Nottingham Forest
Losses in a row
3
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak55
Consecutive defeats start with the latest recorded result. The sequence describes the results, without claiming a cause.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 26.3
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Nottingham Forest’s perspective. Event: Losses in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | LeedsH | 0–1L | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | LiverpoolA | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-09-05 | TottenhamH | 0–0D | No |
| 2026-09-12 | Aston VillaA | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-09-19 | CoventryH | 0–1L | Yes |
| 2026-10-11 | Crystal PalaceA | 1–3L | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | ArsenalH | 0–1L | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Fulham
Points below expected
−5.1
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast63
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 5; xPts 10.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 63.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 10.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Unbeaten in a row
5
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak62
The latest recorded sequence contains wins and draws without a defeat. It counts results, without adjusting for the opposition.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 43.8
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Unbeaten in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
Points above expected
+4.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 16.0
- xPts
- 11.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace
Goals conceded per match
2.2
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores60
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 29.1
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Crystal Palace’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | EvertonA | 0–2L |
| 2026-08-28 | Manchester CityH | 1–4L |
| 2026-09-05 | FulhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-12 | IpswichH | 2–3L |
| 2026-09-17 | Lech PoznanH | 4–0W |
| 2026-09-20 | LeedsA | 0–0D |
| 2026-10-11 | Nottingham ForestH | 3–1W |
| 2026-10-15 | LyonA | 2–3L |
| 2026-10-18 | BrightonA | 0–5L |
Chelsea
Goals scored per match
2.4
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores57
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 33.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Chelsea’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | FulhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-08-30 | BrightonH | 4–3W |
| 2026-09-06 | ArsenalA | 1–2L |
| 2026-09-12 | Hull CityH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-18 | BrentfordA | 0–3L |
| 2026-10-10 | BournemouthH | 5–1W |
| 2026-10-17 | EvertonA | 2–0W |
Leeds
Goals conceded per match
0.9
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores53
This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 20.3
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Leeds’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W |
| 2026-08-30 | BrentfordH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-05 | BrightonA | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-14 | NewcastleH | 4–1W |
| 2026-09-20 | Crystal PalaceH | 0–0D |
| 2026-10-10 | ArsenalA | 1–2L |
| 2026-10-18 | Manchester UnitedH | 1–1D |
Nottingham Forest
Points below expected
−4.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast61
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 5; xPts 9.6. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 57.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 5.0
- xPts
- 9.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Manchester United
Goals conceded away per match
1.6
Last 5 recorded away matches
Scores46
An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.
Recorded scores · away only · Last 5 recorded away matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.4
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 62.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 5 recorded away matches
Oldest → newest · scores from Manchester United’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Hull CityA | 0–2L |
| 2026-09-06 | EvertonA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-20 | FulhamA | 1–1D |
| 2026-10-13 | Atletico MadridA | 0–2L |
| 2026-10-18 | LeedsA | 1–1D |
Aston Villa
Goals conceded away per match
1.6
Last 5 recorded away matches
Scores45
An away-only conceding average that meets the descriptive threshold. Home results are excluded from this club window; the league reference includes both venues and does not adjust opposition.
Recorded scores · away only · Last 5 recorded away matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. League reference includes home and away games; this club window is away only. Context only, without opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 62.5
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 5 recorded away matches
Oldest → newest · scores from Aston Villa’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BrightonA | 0–4L |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull CityA | 0–0D |
| 2026-09-08 | Club Brugge KVA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-19 | TottenhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-10-17 | NewcastleA | 1–0W |
Brighton
Scoring in a row
7
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak68
The club has scored in consecutive recorded matches, starting with the latest result. One goal is enough to extend the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 61.3
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brighton’s perspective. Event: Scoring in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Aston VillaH | 4–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | ChelseaA | 3–4L | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | LeedsH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-13 | CoventryA | 5–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | ArsenalH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | SunderlandA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Crystal PalaceH | 5–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Brentford
Scoring in a row
7
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak67
The club has scored in consecutive recorded matches, starting with the latest result. One goal is enough to extend the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 61.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brentford’s perspective. Event: Scoring in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | TottenhamH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | LeedsA | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | SunderlandH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | BournemouthA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-18 | ChelseaH | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | Aston VillaA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | LiverpoolH | 1–2L | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Manchester City
xG difference per match
+0.77
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG34
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.16; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 51.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.16
- xG against
- 1.39
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Manchester City
Clean sheets
4
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores61
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 33.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Manchester City’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BournemouthH | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal PalaceA | 4–1W | No |
| 2026-09-05 | CoventryH | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | FC PortoA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester UnitedA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-20 | SunderlandH | 5–3W | No |
| 2026-10-11 | LiverpoolA | 3–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-14 | Paris Saint GermainH | 2–4L | No |
| 2026-10-17 | IpswichH | 3–2W | No |
Chelsea
Points above expected
+3.7
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast57
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 13; xPts 9.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 46.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 13.0
- xPts
- 9.3
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Brighton
xG difference per match
+0.74
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG33
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.01; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 49.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 2.01
- xG against
- 1.27
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Hull City
Points above expected
+3.6
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast56
Hull City
+3.6
Points above expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points9.0xPts5.4
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 5.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 45.0
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 5.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Arsenal
xG difference per match
+0.71
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG33
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 47.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.56
- xG against
- 0.85
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Everton
Clean sheets
3
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores55
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 27.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Everton’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Crystal PalaceH | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | BournemouthA | 1–1D | No |
| 2026-09-06 | Manchester UnitedH | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-09-12 | TottenhamA | 0–0D | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | IpswichH | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-11 | Hull CityA | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-10-17 | ChelseaH | 0–2L | No |
Aston Villa
Scoring in a row
6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Streak70
The club has scored in consecutive recorded matches, starting with the latest result. One goal is enough to extend the run.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
- Deviation
- 57.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Aston Villa’s perspective. Event: Scoring in a row.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BrightonA | 0–4L | No |
| 2026-08-31 | ArsenalH | 0–1L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull CityA | 0–0D | No |
| 2026-09-08 | Club Brugge KVA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | Nottingham ForestH | 1–2L | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | TottenhamA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-10-10 | BrentfordH | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-10-14 | FenerbahceH | 6–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | NewcastleA | 1–0W | Yes |
Consecutive known results, starting with the latest recorded match. Missing or special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound within this window.
Full club analysis →
Everton
Goals conceded per match
1.0
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores51
This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 15.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Everton’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Crystal PalaceH | 2–0W |
| 2026-08-29 | BournemouthA | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-06 | Manchester UnitedH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-12 | TottenhamA | 0–0D |
| 2026-09-19 | IpswichH | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-11 | Hull CityA | 2–2D |
| 2026-10-17 | ChelseaH | 0–2L |
Bournemouth
xG difference per match
+0.67
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG32
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.82; xG against 1.15. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 44.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.82
- xG against
- 1.15
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Hull City
Clean sheets
3
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores55
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 27.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Hull City’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Manchester UnitedH | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | CoventryA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | Aston VillaH | 0–0D | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | ChelseaA | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-09-19 | NewcastleA | 1–2L | No |
| 2026-10-11 | EvertonH | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-10-17 | FulhamA | 0–1L | No |
Ipswich
Goals conceded per match
2.1
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 23.7
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Ipswich’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | SunderlandH | 2–1W |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester UnitedA | 2–5L |
| 2026-09-04 | LiverpoolH | 0–2L |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal PalaceA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-19 | EvertonA | 0–1L |
| 2026-10-10 | FulhamH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-17 | Manchester CityA | 2–3L |
Hull City
Goals conceded per match
1.0
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores51
This conceding average meets the low-goals signal threshold. Compare it with the league reference; opponent strength and chance quality are not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 15.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Hull City’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Manchester UnitedH | 2–0W |
| 2026-08-29 | CoventryA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-05 | Aston VillaH | 0–0D |
| 2026-09-12 | ChelseaA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-19 | NewcastleA | 1–2L |
| 2026-10-11 | EvertonH | 2–2D |
| 2026-10-17 | FulhamA | 0–1L |
Bournemouth
Points below expected
−2.6
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast54
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 12; xPts 14.6. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 27.9
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 12.0
- xPts
- 14.6
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Liverpool
xG difference per match
+0.60
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG30
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.89; xG against 1.29. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 40.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.89
- xG against
- 1.29
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Liverpool
Points above expected
+3.1
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast55
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 18; xPts 14.9. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 33.2
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 18.0
- xPts
- 14.9
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Ipswich
Points above expected
+2.9
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Results have delivered more points than the stored match forecasts expected. The gap describes those results; it does not establish that a reversal is due.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 9; xPts 6.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 36.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 9.0
- xPts
- 6.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Tottenham
Points below expected
−2.5
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast53
Tottenham
−2.5
Points below expected
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Points6.0xPts8.5
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Points 6; xPts 8.5. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 31.3
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 6.0
- xPts
- 8.5
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Newcastle
Both teams scored
71%
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores57
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Newcastle’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | LiverpoolH | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | TottenhamA | 2–0W | No |
| 2026-09-05 | BournemouthH | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-14 | LeedsA | 1–4L | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | Hull CityH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-12 | CoventryA | 1–4L | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | Aston VillaH | 0–1L | No |
Chelsea
Both teams scored
71%
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores57
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Chelsea’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | FulhamA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | BrightonH | 4–3W | Yes |
| 2026-09-06 | ArsenalA | 1–2L | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | Hull CityH | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-18 | BrentfordA | 0–3L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | BournemouthH | 5–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | EvertonA | 2–0W | No |
Brentford
Both teams scored
71%
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores57
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brentford’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | TottenhamH | 3–0W | No |
| 2026-08-30 | LeedsA | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | SunderlandH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | BournemouthA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-18 | ChelseaH | 3–0W | No |
| 2026-10-10 | Aston VillaA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | LiverpoolH | 1–2L | Yes |
Ipswich
Both teams scored
71%
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores57
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Ipswich’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | SunderlandH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester UnitedA | 2–5L | Yes |
| 2026-09-04 | LiverpoolH | 0–2L | No |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal PalaceA | 3–2W | Yes |
| 2026-09-19 | EvertonA | 0–1L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | FulhamH | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | Manchester CityA | 2–3L | Yes |
Newcastle
Points below expected
−2.1
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast50
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Points 8; xPts 10.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 26.3
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 45.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
7/7 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 8.0
- xPts
- 10.1
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 2; reconstructed: 5.
Full club analysis →
Newcastle
Goals conceded per match
2.0
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores52
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 18.8
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Newcastle’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | LiverpoolH | 2–2D |
| 2026-08-29 | TottenhamA | 2–0W |
| 2026-09-05 | BournemouthH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-14 | LeedsA | 1–4L |
| 2026-09-19 | Hull CityH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-12 | CoventryA | 1–4L |
| 2026-10-17 | Aston VillaH | 0–1L |
Coventry
Goals conceded per match
2.0
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 18.8
- Recency
- 100.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Coventry’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | ArsenalA | 0–3L |
| 2026-08-29 | Hull CityH | 0–1L |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester CityA | 0–1L |
| 2026-09-13 | BrightonH | 0–5L |
| 2026-09-19 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-12 | NewcastleH | 4–1W |
| 2026-10-19 | TottenhamA | 1–3L |
Leeds
Both teams scored
71%
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores58
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 32.5
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Leeds’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W | No |
| 2026-08-30 | BrentfordH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | BrightonA | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-14 | NewcastleH | 4–1W | Yes |
| 2026-09-20 | Crystal PalaceH | 0–0D | No |
| 2026-10-10 | ArsenalA | 1–2L | Yes |
| 2026-10-18 | Manchester UnitedH | 1–1D | Yes |
Liverpool
Goals scored per match
1.9
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores55
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 16.6
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Liverpool’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | NewcastleA | 2–2D |
| 2026-08-29 | Nottingham ForestH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-04 | IpswichA | 2–0W |
| 2026-09-09 | Atletico MadridH | 2–1W |
| 2026-09-12 | FulhamH | 0–0D |
| 2026-09-20 | BournemouthA | 1–0W |
| 2026-10-11 | Manchester CityH | 0–3L |
| 2026-10-14 | Lask LinzA | 6–3W |
| 2026-10-17 | BrentfordA | 2–1W |
Bournemouth
Both teams scored
67%
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores60
Both teams have scored regularly in this recorded window. It describes past scorelines, rather than the probability for the next match.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 26.6
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Bournemouth’s perspective. Event: Both teams scored.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester CityA | 1–2L | Yes |
| 2026-08-29 | EvertonH | 1–1D | Yes |
| 2026-09-05 | NewcastleA | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-12 | BrentfordH | 2–2D | Yes |
| 2026-09-17 | Real SociedadA | 2–1W | Yes |
| 2026-09-20 | LiverpoolH | 0–1L | No |
| 2026-10-10 | ChelseaA | 1–5L | Yes |
| 2026-10-15 | Sturm GrazH | 3–0W | No |
| 2026-10-18 | SunderlandH | 2–0W | No |
Liverpool
Clean sheets
3
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 11.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Liverpool’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | NewcastleA | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-08-29 | Nottingham ForestH | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-09-04 | IpswichA | 2–0W | Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | Atletico MadridH | 2–1W | No |
| 2026-09-12 | FulhamH | 0–0D | Yes |
| 2026-09-20 | BournemouthA | 1–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-11 | Manchester CityH | 0–3L | No |
| 2026-10-14 | Lask LinzA | 6–3W | No |
| 2026-10-17 | BrentfordA | 2–1W | No |
Aston Villa
Clean sheets
3
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
Matches without conceding stand out in the recent results. Clean sheets count outcomes; they do not measure the quality of chances allowed.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 11.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Aston Villa’s perspective. Event: Clean sheet.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BrightonA | 0–4L | No |
| 2026-08-31 | ArsenalH | 0–1L | No |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull CityA | 0–0D | Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | Club Brugge KVA | 3–2W | No |
| 2026-09-12 | Nottingham ForestH | 1–2L | No |
| 2026-09-19 | TottenhamA | 3–2W | No |
| 2026-10-10 | BrentfordH | 2–2D | No |
| 2026-10-14 | FenerbahceH | 6–0W | Yes |
| 2026-10-17 | NewcastleA | 1–0W | Yes |
Brentford
Goals scored per match
1.9
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores50
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 13.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Brentford’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | TottenhamH | 3–0W |
| 2026-08-30 | LeedsA | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-05 | SunderlandH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-12 | BournemouthA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-18 | ChelseaH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-10 | Aston VillaA | 2–2D |
| 2026-10-17 | LiverpoolH | 1–2L |
Fulham
xG difference per match
+0.31
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG23
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.61; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 20.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.61
- xG against
- 1.30
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace
Points below expected
−1.4
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
Forecast49
The points return is below the stored match forecasts on the same covered games. This is a results-versus-expectations gap, not a guarantee of improvement.
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games · 9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Points 10; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
- Deviation
- 15.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 60.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
9/9 covered matches · current leagues
- Points
- 10.0
- xPts
- 11.4
Points and xPts cover identical matches. xPts uses stored LOAD90 forecasts, including historical reconstructions; not observed xG. Saved: 3; reconstructed: 6.
Full club analysis →
Chelsea
Goals conceded per match
1.9
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores50
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 13.9
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Chelsea’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | FulhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-08-30 | BrightonH | 4–3W |
| 2026-09-06 | ArsenalA | 1–2L |
| 2026-09-12 | Hull CityH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-18 | BrentfordA | 0–3L |
| 2026-10-10 | BournemouthH | 5–1W |
| 2026-10-17 | EvertonA | 2–0W |
Manchester United
xG difference per match
+0.26
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG22
Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 17.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.56
- xG against
- 1.30
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Newcastle
xG difference per match
−0.41
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG26
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.19; xG against 1.6. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 27.3
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.19
- xG against
- 1.60
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Aston Villa
Goals scored per match
1.8
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores54
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 12.4
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Aston Villa’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | BrightonA | 0–4L |
| 2026-08-31 | ArsenalH | 0–1L |
| 2026-09-05 | Hull CityA | 0–0D |
| 2026-09-08 | Club Brugge KVA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-12 | Nottingham ForestH | 1–2L |
| 2026-09-19 | TottenhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-10-10 | BrentfordH | 2–2D |
| 2026-10-14 | FenerbahceH | 6–0W |
| 2026-10-17 | NewcastleA | 1–0W |
Leeds
xG difference per match
−0.36
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG24
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.29; xG against 1.65. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 24.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.29
- xG against
- 1.65
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace
xG difference per match
−0.34
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG24
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.52; xG against 1.86. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 22.7
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.52
- xG against
- 1.86
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Chelsea
xG difference per match
−0.30
Underlying performance · 10-match window
Observed xG23
Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.
Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.5. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
- Deviation
- 20.0
- Recency
- 0.0
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 40.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Underlying performance · 10-match window
- xG for
- 1.20
- xG against
- 1.50
Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.
Full club analysis →
Arsenal
Goals scored per match
1.7
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores53
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 8.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Arsenal’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | CoventryH | 3–0W |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston VillaA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-06 | ChelseaH | 2–1W |
| 2026-09-09 | NapoliA | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-12 | SunderlandA | 2–0W |
| 2026-09-19 | BrightonA | 0–3L |
| 2026-10-10 | LeedsH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-13 | LilleH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | Nottingham ForestA | 1–0W |
Crystal Palace
Goals scored per match
1.7
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores53
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 8.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Crystal Palace’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | EvertonA | 0–2L |
| 2026-08-28 | Manchester CityH | 1–4L |
| 2026-09-05 | FulhamA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-12 | IpswichH | 2–3L |
| 2026-09-17 | Lech PoznanH | 4–0W |
| 2026-09-20 | LeedsA | 0–0D |
| 2026-10-11 | Nottingham ForestH | 3–1W |
| 2026-10-15 | LyonA | 2–3L |
| 2026-10-18 | BrightonA | 0–5L |
Sunderland
Goals conceded per match
1.7
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores53
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 8.2
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Sunderland’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | IpswichA | 1–2L |
| 2026-08-30 | FulhamH | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-05 | BrentfordA | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-12 | ArsenalH | 0–2L |
| 2026-09-16 | AZ AlkmaarH | 1–0W |
| 2026-09-20 | Manchester CityA | 3–5L |
| 2026-10-10 | BrightonH | 0–2L |
| 2026-10-15 | TorreenseA | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-18 | BournemouthA | 0–2L |
Ipswich
Goals scored per match
1.6
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores47
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-17 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.2
- Recency
- 93.6
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 70.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Ipswich’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | SunderlandH | 2–1W |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester UnitedA | 2–5L |
| 2026-09-04 | LiverpoolH | 0–2L |
| 2026-09-12 | Crystal PalaceA | 3–2W |
| 2026-09-19 | EvertonA | 0–1L |
| 2026-10-10 | FulhamH | 2–1W |
| 2026-10-17 | Manchester CityA | 2–3L |
Manchester United
Goals scored per match
1.6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores52
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Manchester United’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Hull CityA | 0–2L |
| 2026-08-30 | IpswichH | 5–2W |
| 2026-09-06 | EvertonA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-10 | Sabah FAH | 4–0W |
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester CityH | 0–1L |
| 2026-09-20 | FulhamA | 1–1D |
| 2026-10-10 | TottenhamH | 1–1D |
| 2026-10-13 | Atletico MadridA | 0–2L |
| 2026-10-18 | LeedsA | 1–1D |
Bournemouth
Goals scored per match
1.6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores52
This scoring average meets the descriptive signal threshold and includes games without a goal. Compare it with the league reference before treating it as exceptional; opposition is not adjusted.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Bournemouth’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester CityA | 1–2L |
| 2026-08-29 | EvertonH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-05 | NewcastleA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-12 | BrentfordH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-17 | Real SociedadA | 2–1W |
| 2026-09-20 | LiverpoolH | 0–1L |
| 2026-10-10 | ChelseaA | 1–5L |
| 2026-10-15 | Sturm GrazH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | SunderlandH | 2–0W |
Bournemouth
Goals conceded per match
1.6
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Scores52
This conceding average meets the high-goals signal threshold. Its deviation from the league reference determines its editorial interest; the threshold alone does not establish a defensive concern.
Recorded scores · all competitions · Last 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
- Deviation
- 4.0
- Recency
- 96.8
- Context
- 40.0
- Quality
- 90.0
Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Oldest → newest · scores from Bournemouth’s perspective.
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | GF–GA |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester CityA | 1–2L |
| 2026-08-29 | EvertonH | 1–1D |
| 2026-09-05 | NewcastleA | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-12 | BrentfordH | 2–2D |
| 2026-09-17 | Real SociedadA | 2–1W |
| 2026-09-20 | LiverpoolH | 0–1L |
| 2026-10-10 | ChelseaA | 1–5L |
| 2026-10-15 | Sturm GrazH | 3–0W |
| 2026-10-18 | SunderlandH | 2–0W |
About these insights
Read the signal. Keep the context.
Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.
Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.
Check the window
Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.
Read the chart
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.
Separate the sources
xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.
Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.
Explore methodology →