Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 20:00 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen have 5.2 days of rest, Marseille 4 and have to travel 868 km.

Away travel868 kmRest days5.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bayer Leverkusen76%

Draw14%

Marseille10%

Expected goals 2.96 – 1.05

Bayer Leverkusen65%

Draw21%

Marseille14%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.86

Bayer Leverkusen76%

Draw14%

Marseille10%

Expected goals 2.96 – 1.05

Bayer Leverkusen68%

Draw17%

Marseille14%

Expected goals 2.64 – 1.18

Bayer Leverkusen74%

Draw15%

Marseille10%

Expected goals 2.77 – 0.99

Over 2.5 76% Both score 62% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

Marseille

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

87 AttackIn forecast 48

79 DefenceIn forecast 46

94 Form indexContext 41

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack+7%

Defense risk−8%

Marseille

Attack−33%

Defense risk+71%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

Marseille

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

3.56 xGVia Att/Def —

0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

100% Clean sheetsContext 0%

19.50 ShotsContext 12.50

9.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

46% On target shareContext 32%

14.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

73% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 4%

3.00 OffsidesContext —

7.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

100% Save rateContext 55%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

597 PassesContext 488

535 Accurate passesContext 423

90% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.40 Team ratingContext 6.40

15.50 FoulsContext 13.50

7.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.50 ShotsContext 14.40

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

36% On target shareContext 38%

13.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

71% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.20 Shots allowedContext 16.20

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.10 BlocksContext 4.78

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

63% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

537 PassesContext 547

470 Accurate passesContext 481

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.90 FoulsContext 11.20

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen WWWWW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km479 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Marseille LLWLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel868 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	868 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	479 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby

14P. Schick

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen No reported absences

Marseille No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Marseille+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Marseille · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.50
Conceded per game	0.00	2.50
Match goals	3.00	3.00	4.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	76%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Bayer Leverkusen	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.60
Match goals	3.70	3.40	4.00
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	76%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	6.50
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	8.50	8.50	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.50
Opponent cards	0.50	2.00
Match total	1.50	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Bayer Leverkusen	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	4.70
Corners conceded	3.50	4.50
Match total	10.20	9.20	9.76
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.00	3.80	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.