UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 15th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Crystal Palace are slight favourites.

Crystal Palace are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 49). Crystal Palace have 5 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 5.1 and have to travel 685 km.

Away travel685 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Crystal Palace56%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim22%
Expected goals 2.17 – 1.33
Crystal Palace53%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim22%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03
Crystal Palace56%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim22%
Expected goals 2.17 – 1.33
Crystal Palace48%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
Expected goals 1.94 – 1.49
Crystal Palace57%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim22%
Expected goals 2.12 – 1.26
Over 2.5 68% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Crystal Palace1899 Hoffenheim
64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
64 AttackIn forecast 46
54 DefenceIn forecast 43
64 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack+36%
Defense risk−20%

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack−4%
Defense risk+4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Crystal Palace1899 Hoffenheim
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.00 ShotsContext 17.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 24%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
76% Box shareContext 66%
21% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
14.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.50 BlocksContext 4.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
70% Save rateContext 38%
51% PossessionIn forecast 60%
515 PassesContext 506
447 Accurate passesContext 418
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.39
9.50 FoulsContext 20.50
5.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.00 ShotsContext 16.60
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
36% On target shareContext 28%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
71% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 8%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.14
16.30 Shots allowedContext 12.90
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
4.70 BlocksContext 4.10
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
63% Save rateContext 50%
45% PossessionIn forecast 59%
416 PassesContext 515
341 Accurate passesContext 426
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.72
10.50 FoulsContext 14.00
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,997 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel685 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km685 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,997 km850 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one2.83

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace No reported absences
1899 Hoffenheim No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • 1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 3.001.00
Conceded per game 1.502.50
Match goals 4.503.50 3.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50% 68%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 66%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.601.40
Conceded per game 2.202.30
Match goals 3.803.70 3.50
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%80% 68%
Over 3.5 70%60%
Both teams scored 60%70% 66%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won4.507.50
Corners conceded5.004.50
Match total9.5012.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards1.503.50
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.005.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won3.897.10
Corners conceded5.224.20
Match total9.1111.309.76
Over 8.544% 4/9100% 10/10
Over 9.533% 3/990% 9/10
Over 10.533% 3/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.602.70
Opponent cards2.001.40
Match total3.604.103.76
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace2 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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