Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 20:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 17th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

VS— Compare

AEK Athens FC 20th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City are clear favourites.

Manchester City are the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AEK Athens FC. Manchester City have 3.2 days of rest, AEK Athens FC 6 and have to travel 2,625 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,625 kmRest days3.2 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1

Manchester City78%

Draw13%

AEK Athens FC9%

Expected goals 3.04 – 1.00

Manchester City75%

Draw16%

AEK Athens FC9%

Expected goals 2.45 – 0.73

Manchester City78%

Draw13%

AEK Athens FC9%

Expected goals 3.04 – 1.00

Manchester City71%

Draw17%

AEK Athens FC13%

Expected goals 2.71 – 1.12

Manchester City76%

Draw14%

AEK Athens FC9%

Expected goals 2.89 – 0.97

Over 2.5 77% Both score 61% Likeliest score 3–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

11°CDrizzle

Precipitation 91%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 93%

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 119

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Insight Manchester City 4 Clean sheets Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet

Streaks

Streak Manchester City 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Manchester City

AEK Athens FC

91 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

92 AttackIn forecast 50

82 DefenceIn forecast 57

93 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack+19%

Defense risk−19%

AEK Athens FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

AEK Athens FC

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

23.50 ShotsContext 15.50

9.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

40% On target shareContext 23%

16.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

68% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

1.50 BlocksContext 3.50

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

60% Save rateContext 57%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

566 PassesContext 386

506 Accurate passesContext 328

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.50 FoulsContext 12.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.50 ShotsContext 14.90

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 36%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

69% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 12%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.50 BlocksContext 2.44

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

68% Save rateContext 68%

62% PossessionIn forecast 51%

606 PassesContext 406

541 Accurate passesContext 346

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.00 FoulsContext 13.90

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City WWWLW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

AEK Athens FC WL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,625 km4,783 km in 14d

Schedule load30%Moderate

Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

L14 OctA · Shakhtar Donetsk1–31.1 xPts
W8 SepH · Lask Linz1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	AEK Athens FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct	6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,625 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	4,783 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct

1G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes

32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić

11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye

9E. Haaland

AEK Athens FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 1–3, 14 Oct

91A. Brignoli(G)

3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota

11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer

9L. Jović 90Zine

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City No reported absences

AEK Athens FC No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AEK Athens FC+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 4.00

AEK Athens FC · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	AEK Athens FC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	4.00	2.50	4.04
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	77%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Manchester City	AEK Athens FC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.30	0.75
Match goals	3.70	2.25	4.04
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	77%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	25%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	75%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	10	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	4.50
Corners conceded	2.00	4.00
Match total	10.00	8.50	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	3.00	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Manchester City	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.60
Corners conceded	3.70	2.80
Match total	10.10	8.40	9.71
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.00	3.60	3.80
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 119 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.47league 3.64

Red cards0.24league 0.14

Cards 5+34%league 36%

Fouls24.5league 23.0

Penalties0.38league 0.28

Home wins43%league 58%

Manchester City

No previous matches with this referee.

AEK Athens FC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.