Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahce

UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 Wed, Jan 27 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 15th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

VS— Compare

Fenerbahce 28th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,737 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Atletico Madrid—%

Draw—%

Fenerbahce—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 12 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Fenerbahce

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

82 AttackIn forecast 75

87 DefenceIn forecast 53

96 Form indexContext 65

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Fenerbahce

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50

1.21 xGVia Att/Def —

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.00 ShotsContext 13.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

39% On target shareContext 35%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

49% Box shareContext 64%

17% ConversionContext 4%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

2.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

75% Save rateContext 50%

57% PossessionIn forecast 49%

545 PassesContext 456

472 Accurate passesContext 397

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.39

10.50 FoulsContext 9.00

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 2.57

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.10 ShotsContext 16.11

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56

37% On target shareContext 41%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

58% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 17%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.20 Shots allowedContext 14.33

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

2.90 BlocksContext 3.56

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63

71% Save rateContext 74%

60% PossessionIn forecast 49%

588 PassesContext 429

517 Accurate passesContext 369

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.04 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.30 FoulsContext 12.89

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid WWWWW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km7,389 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,737 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan	3.3Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,737 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	7,389 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

13J. Oblak(G)

30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill

23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

7K. Lee

11A. Lookman 15J. David

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Fenerbahce · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 6.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Fenerbahce
Scored per game	1.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.00	3.50
Match goals	2.50	4.00
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Atletico Madrid	Fenerbahce
Scored per game	2.00	2.40
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	3.00	3.60
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.00
Corners conceded	5.00	6.00
Match total	8.50	10.00	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	3.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.00
Match total	3.00	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Atletico Madrid	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.22
Corners conceded	4.25	4.22
Match total	9.25	9.44	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.40
Match total	3.90	3.30	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.