UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 Wed, Jan 27 · 20:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 17th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Sporting CP 6th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,723 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Manchester City—%
Draw—%
Sporting CP—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 12 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CitySporting CP
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
92 AttackIn forecast 75
82 DefenceIn forecast 81
93 Form indexContext 83
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester CitySporting CP
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
2.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.76
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
23.50 ShotsContext 9.50
9.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
40% On target shareContext 53%
16.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
68% Box shareContext 61%
9% ConversionContext 26%
1.50 OffsidesContext —
10.00 Shots allowedContext 15.50
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
1.50 BlocksContext 3.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
60% Save rateContext 100%
59% PossessionIn forecast 41%
566 PassesContext 402
506 Accurate passesContext 333
89% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.89 Team ratingContext 7.16
13.50 FoulsContext 12.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.71
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.79
100% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.50 ShotsContext 11.90
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40
36% On target shareContext 45%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
69% Box shareContext 66%
15% ConversionContext 21%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.88
11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.40
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
2.50 BlocksContext 2.33
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
68% Save rateContext 81%
62% PossessionIn forecast 55%
606 PassesContext 521
541 Accurate passesContext 457
89% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.10 Team ratingContext 7.00
11.00 FoulsContext 11.70
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,622 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Sporting CP
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,723 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W13 OctA · Lens2–01.5 xPts
  • W9 OctA · SC Braga3–11.5 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan3.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,723 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,622 km622 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Sporting CP Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Lens (A) 2–0, 13 Oct
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 8João Simões
19N. Irankunda 97L. Suárez 10Geny Catamo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sporting CP Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
4.00
Sporting CP · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Manchester City wins1 draws1 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 33%
  • 5 Nov 2024Sporting CP4–1Manchester City
  • 9 Mar 2022Manchester City0–0Sporting CP
  • 15 Feb 2022Sporting CP0–5Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CitySporting CPForecast
Scored per game 2.002.50
Conceded per game 2.000.50
Match goals 4.003.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Manchester CitySporting CPForecast
Scored per game 2.402.50
Conceded per game 1.301.00
Match goals 3.703.50
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 40%70%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CitySporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won8.002.00
Corners conceded2.005.00
Match total10.007.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards1.002.50
Match total3.003.503.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Manchester CitySporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won6.403.22
Corners conceded3.703.67
Match total10.106.899.71
Over 8.570% 7/1022% 2/9
Over 9.560% 6/100% 0/9
Over 10.560% 6/100% 0/9
Cards
Cards1.502.10
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.004.603.80
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
Sporting CP2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1 0-15
2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4 1 0-15
6 16-30
3 1 31-45
6 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Liverpool Lens Jan 2720:00 Arsenal Sabah FA Jan 2720:00 Manchester City Sporting CP Jan 2720:00 Paris Saint Germain Galatasaray Jan 2720:00 Bayern München Real Betis Jan 2720:00 Borussia Dortmund AEK Athens FC Jan 2720:00 PSV Eindhoven VfB Stuttgart Jan 2720:00 Feyenoord RB Leipzig Jan 2720:00 Napoli Viking Jan 2720:00 AS Roma Lille Jan 2720:00 Barcelona Como Jan 2720:00 Atletico Madrid Fenerbahce Jan 2720:00 Villarreal Manchester United Jan 2720:00 Shakhtar Donetsk Real Madrid Jan 2720:00 Slavia Praha Aston Villa Jan 2720:00 Club Brugge KV Bodo/Glimt Jan 2720:00 Slovan Bratislava Inter Jan 2720:00 Lask Linz FC Porto Jan 2720:00