UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 Wed, Jan 27 · 20:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Villarreal 14th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Manchester United 13th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,514 kmRest days3.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Villarreal—%
Draw—%
Manchester United—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 12 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Villarreal and Manchester United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

VillarrealManchester United
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
76 AttackIn forecast 72
73 DefenceIn forecast 80
79 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VillarrealManchester United
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.36 xGVia Att/Def —
2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.14 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.00 ShotsContext 14.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
33% On target shareContext 46%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
58% Box shareContext 73%
17% ConversionContext 14%
3.00 OffsidesContext —
14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
4.50 BlocksContext 3.50
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —
67% Save rateContext 67%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
487 PassesContext 490
415 Accurate passesContext 435
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88
9.00 FoulsContext 12.50
15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
70% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.50 ShotsContext 17.60
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
36% On target shareContext 31%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
67% Box shareContext 60%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.90 OffsidesContext 2.29
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.00
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.63 BlocksContext 3.20
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
72% Save rateContext 69%
59% PossessionIn forecast 53%
560 PassesContext 507
493 Accurate passesContext 439
88% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.40 FoulsContext 10.00
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,382 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts
Manchester United
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,514 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Villarreal Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 33Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,514 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways5,382 km227 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.82.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez
Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Manchester United · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Villarreal wins0 draws2 Manchester United wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 23 Nov 2021Villarreal0–2Manchester United
  • 29 Sep 2021Manchester United2–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VillarrealManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 2.502.00
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 4.503.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 100%0%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
VillarrealManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.601.70
Conceded per game 1.501.20
Match goals 3.102.90
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 70%40%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VillarrealManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won5.505.00
Corners conceded6.502.00
Match total12.007.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.501.50
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total4.503.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
VillarrealManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won6.505.89
Corners conceded4.703.22
Match total11.209.119.71
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.701.60
Opponent cards2.902.30
Match total4.603.903.80
Over 3.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Villarreal2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Manchester United2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 5 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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