UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Real Betis 9th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Borussia Dortmund are slight favourites.

Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 72). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Betis. Borussia Dortmund have 4.1 days of rest, Real Betis 4.1 and have to travel 1,893 km.

Away travel1,893 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Dortmund51%
Draw23%
Real Betis26%
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.36
Borussia Dortmund50%
Draw26%
Real Betis24%
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.08
Borussia Dortmund51%
Draw23%
Real Betis26%
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.36
Borussia Dortmund43%
Draw24%
Real Betis33%
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.53
Borussia Dortmund51%
Draw23%
Real Betis26%
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.34
Over 2.5 65% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundReal Betis
81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 72
69 AttackIn forecast 79
80 DefenceIn forecast 59
61 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack−9%
Defense risk+25%

Real Betis

Attack−21%
Defense risk+18%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundReal Betis
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +1.26
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.50 ShotsContext 18.50
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
37% On target shareContext 32%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
58% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 16%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
12.00 Shots allowedContext 8.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.00 BlocksContext 2.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext —
78% Save rateContext 60%
52% PossessionIn forecast 56%
549 PassesContext 534
483 Accurate passesContext 466
88% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.90
11.50 FoulsContext 13.50
8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.71
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
80% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.70 ShotsContext 16.70
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
39% On target shareContext 37%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
72% Box shareContext 58%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.63 OffsidesContext 1.40
11.20 Shots allowedContext 14.60
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
2.78 BlocksContext 3.50
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
77% Save rateContext 67%
54% PossessionIn forecast 52%
530 PassesContext 504
454 Accurate passesContext 438
86% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.98
10.90 FoulsContext 10.70
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
Real Betis
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,893 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Barcelona2–50.8 xPts
  • W14 OctH · FC Porto3–21.4 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Osasuna5–22.0 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Getafe1–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct4.1La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,893 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways955 km1,176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one2.83.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Real Betis Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Barcelona (H) 2–5, 17 Oct
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 2Héctor Bellerín
25Dani Ceballos 6F. Bernal
10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 20G. Lo Celso
9C. Hernández

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund No reported absences
Real Betis No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Real Betis+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00
Real Betis · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 1.503.00
Conceded per game 1.502.00
Match goals 3.005.00 3.33
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%100% 65%
Over 3.5 50%100%
Both teams scored 50%100% 64%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Borussia DortmundReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 1.902.10
Conceded per game 0.901.80
Match goals 2.803.90 3.33
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 50%60% 65%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%70% 64%
Clean sheets 50%30%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won9.005.00
Corners conceded5.503.00
Match total14.508.009.71
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards1.503.50
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.006.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Borussia DortmundReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won5.804.90
Corners conceded4.505.90
Match total10.3010.809.71
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards1.502.60
Match total3.704.503.80
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Real Betis2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
8 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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