Sparta Praha
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bournemouth are clear favourites.
Bournemouth are the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bournemouth. Sparta Praha have 13.9 days of rest, Bournemouth 5.1 and have to travel 1,155 km.
Away travel1,155 kmRest days13.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
Sparta Praha15%
Draw19%
Bournemouth66%
Sparta Praha20%
Draw24%
Bournemouth56%
Sparta Praha15%
Draw19%
Bournemouth66%
Sparta Praha11%
Draw16%
Bournemouth73%
Sparta Praha16%
Draw20%
Bournemouth65%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Praha)
Forecast from 21 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sparta Praha and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Sparta Praha
−0.21
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.15xG against1.36
Attack
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Sparta PrahaBournemouth
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
33
AttackIn forecast
83
34
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack+48%
Defense risk−32%
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta PrahaBournemouth
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.00
ShotsContext
17.50
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
42%
On target shareContext
31%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
54%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.50
BlocksContext
—
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
50%
Save rateContext
83%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
433
PassesContext
415
377
Accurate passesContext
332
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
15.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
65%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.44
BlocksContext
3.29
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
77%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
449
PassesContext
434
380
Accurate passesContext
353
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.90
FoulsContext
12.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Praha
WD
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,072 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Bournemouth
WLLWW
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,155 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Praha |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct | 5.1Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,072 km | 616 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Praha
Last XI · not confirmed
44J. Surovčík(G)
15V. Vitályos
6T. Guddal
19A. Ševínský
2M. Suchomel
20S. Mannsverk
18A. Irving
27E. Singhateh
38Hugo Sochurek
31M. Jurásek
14J. Braut Brunes
Bournemouth
Last XI · not confirmed
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
14António Silva
5J. Hill
15A. Smith
10R. Christie
12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier
4L. Cook
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Praha
No reported absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Praha+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sparta Praha · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bournemouth · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.50 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.20 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sparta Praha2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Bournemouth2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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