Lillestrom
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Plzen are slight favourites.
Plzen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 27). Lillestrom have 13.9 days of rest, Plzen 13.9 and have to travel 1,154 km.
Away travel1,154 kmRest days13.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lillestrom31%
Draw24%
Plzen45%
Lillestrom30%
Draw27%
Plzen43%
Lillestrom31%
Draw24%
Plzen45%
Lillestrom24%
Draw23%
Plzen53%
Lillestrom31%
Draw25%
Plzen45%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kjeller)
Forecast from 21 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Lillestrom and Plzen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Lillestrom
Plzen
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
23
AttackIn forecast
54
31
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPlzen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LillestromPlzen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
16.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
28%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
56%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
3%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
13.00
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
9.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.00
64%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
475
PassesContext
432
393
Accurate passesContext
339
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.41
11.50
FoulsContext
14.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
75%
Scored inContext
60%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
—
ShotsContext
13.88
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
28%
On target shareContext
32%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
—
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
1.25
—
Shots allowedContext
14.25
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
6.00
BlocksContext
3.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.88
64%
Save rateContext
81%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
—
PassesContext
404
—
Accurate passesContext
314
—
Pass accuracyContext
78%
—
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.75
FoulsContext
14.10
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lillestrom
LD
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 1 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lillestrom |
Plzen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,154 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lillestrom
Last XI · not confirmed
12P. Dahlberg(G)
26W. Paintsil
47S. Kristiansen
28L. Gabrielsen
2Lars Ranger
14G. Nyheim
21F. Ottosson
29Y. Ibrahimaj
20Vá
8F. Gulbrandsen
22D. Bassi
Plzen
Last XI · not confirmed
1D. Ťapaj(G)
14Merchas Doski
98F. Prebsl
40S. Dweh
29A. Gabriel
17P. Hrošovský
36S. Pirgic
99Amar Memić
20J. Panoš
12A. Sojka
25C. Kabongo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lillestrom
No reported absences
Plzen
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Lillestrom+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Plzen+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lillestrom · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Plzen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lillestrom | Plzen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lillestrom | Plzen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 40% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lillestrom | Plzen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Lillestrom | Plzen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 11.75 | 8.77 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lillestrom2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Plzen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lillestrom4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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