Marseille

9th · Ligue 1 · 9 points · Matches played: 7

5 points behind Lyon · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-0.2 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -0.9 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 46.9-0.2
World Rank 96th Global, by Elo
Ligue 1 Rank 7th L90 Strength
Last AngersA xG 2.8–2.1 5–2 Next Sturm GrazA 39%

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Upcoming fixtures

Marseille · All competitions

Forecast
Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away 39% win 1.41 xPts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home 62% win 2.06 xPts ToulouseLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home 47% win 1.64 xPts Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away 10% win 0.44 xPts LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away 25% win 0.96 xPts Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Levski SofiaUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Celta VigoUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts CelticUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away — win — xPts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AnderlechtUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts Estac TroyesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts ToulouseLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Marseille · All competitions

Full time
AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away W 5–2 2.8–2.1 xG +1.3 Δpts Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home L 0–1 0.8–0.6 xG -1.3 Δpts Estac TroyesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away W 2–0 1.3–1.2 xG +1.1 Δpts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 1–2 — xG -0.7 Δpts BesiktasUEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away L 1–4 — xG -1.1 Δpts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away L 0–1 — xG -1.2 Δpts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 2–3 — xG -2.0 Δpts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away L 0–2 1.2–1.5 xG -1.2 Δpts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home W 4–0 1.9–0.2 xG +1.3 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Marseille first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Moderate · 32

Rest profile4.2 days since last match
0%
Schedule load3 matches in last 14 days
30%
Travel load892 km to venue, 2,442 km in 14 days
57%
Squad availability3 out, 1 key: P. Højbjerg · Last match: 18 Oct
18%

Load before the next match, at Sturm Graz, 22 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 21 Aug vs Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100
W
 Aug 30 Aug at Monaco: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 58/100
L
 6 Sep vs Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100
L
 Sep 11 Sep at Rennes: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 55/100
L
 17 Sep at Besiktas: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 53/100
L
 20 Sep vs Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 61/100; match difficulty 88/100
L
 11 Oct at Estac Troyes: Schedule difficulty 11/100; match difficulty 16/100
W
 Oct 15 Oct vs Olympiakos Piraeus: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 63/100
L
 18 Oct at Angers: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 24/100
W
 22 Oct at Sturm Graz: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 42/100 25 Oct vs LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 25/100 1 Nov vs Toulouse: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 43/100 Nov 5 Nov at Bayer Leverkusen: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 78/100 8 Nov at Lens: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 59/100 22 Nov vs Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 31/100 26 Nov vs Levski Sofia: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 31/100 29 Nov at Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 34/100 5 Dec vs Nice: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 32/100 Dec 10 Dec vs Celta Vigo: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 56/100 13 Dec at Lyon: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 62/100 2 Jan at Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 38/100 Jan 16 Jan vs Lille: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 57/100 21 Jan at Celtic: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 54/100 23 Jan at Lorient: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 39/100 28 Jan vs Anderlecht: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 47/100 30 Jan vs Estac Troyes: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 16/100 7 Feb at Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 88/100 Feb 13 Feb vs Angers: Schedule difficulty 12/100; match difficulty 24/100 20 Feb at Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 48/100 27 Feb vs Rennes: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 55/100 6 Mar at Lille: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 57/100 Mar 13 Mar vs Monaco: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 58/100 21 Mar vs Lyon: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100 3 Apr at Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 31/100 Apr 10 Apr vs Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100 17 Apr at LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 25/100 24 Apr vs Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 20/100; match difficulty 34/100 1 May at Toulouse: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 43/100 May 8 May at Nice: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 32/100 16 May vs Lens: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 59/100 22 May at Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 38/100 29 May vs Lorient: Schedule difficulty 20/100; match difficulty 39/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest4.2 daysbefore STU
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel / 14d2,442 kmaway trips
Schedule load32%Moderate
at Sturm GrazThu 22 Oct, 17:45 UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 38 39%win25%draw36%loss Moderate load · 4.2 d rest · 3 in 14 d vs LE HavreSun 25 Oct, 16:15 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 20 62%win21%draw17%loss High load · 3 d rest · 4 in 14 d vs ToulouseSun 1 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 39 47%win24%draw29%loss Low load · 7.1 d rest at Bayer LeverkusenThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 79 10%win14%draw76%loss Low load · 4 d rest at LensSun 8 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 58 25%win22%draw53%loss Moderate load · 3 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → at Sturm Graz, 22 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing+5%

Baseline 5.29 → Forecast 5.57 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing−11%

Baseline 4.49 → Forecast 4.00 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
at Sturm Graz22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase +2% −11% 1.57 → 1.60
vs LE Havre25 Oct · Ligue 1 2026-2027 +22% −22% 1.81 → 2.21
vs Toulouse1 Nov · Ligue 1 2026-2027 −8% +1% 1.91 → 1.77

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Marseille

Baseline: average Ligue 1 opponent

Attack Uplift +2% Expected goals Baseline1.57Forecast1.60
Conceding Risk −11% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.74Forecast1.54
Clean Sheet +3.8 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline17.6%Forecast21.4%