Celtic vs Marseille – 21 Jan 2027

UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 20:00 Celtic Park, Glasgow

Celtic 33rd · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,557 kmRest days12.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Celtic—%

Draw—%

Marseille—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Glasgow)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Celtic

Marseille

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

74 AttackIn forecast 48

50 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext 41

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celtic

Marseille

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 12.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 32%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

76% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 4%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

20.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.50 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

46% Save rateContext 55%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

556 PassesContext 488

496 Accurate passesContext 423

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.36 Team ratingContext 6.40

12.50 FoulsContext 13.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

0.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

2.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.00 ShotsContext 14.40

7.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

45% On target shareContext 38%

12.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

73% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.44 OffsidesContext 1.71

16.50 Shots allowedContext 16.20

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

5.20 BlocksContext 4.78

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

66% Save rateContext 70%

56% PossessionIn forecast 55%

587 PassesContext 547

516 Accurate passesContext 481

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.70 FoulsContext 11.20

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celtic LL

Rest12.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L15 OctA · Benfica1–40.5 xPts
L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts

Marseille LLWLW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,557 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celtic	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 9 Jan	5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,557 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	1.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celtic Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Heart Of Midlothian (H) 7–1, 18 Oct

1V. Sinisalo(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 47D. Murray 51C. Donovan

22M. Baur 42C. McGregor

19C. Osmand 8E. Nygren 23H. Hassan

11Camilo Duran

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celtic Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Marseille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Celtic · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Marseille · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celtic	Marseille
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	3.50	2.50
Match goals	4.50	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Celtic	Marseille
Scored per game	2.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.60
Match goals	3.60	3.40
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celtic	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	8.50	6.50
Corners conceded	5.50	2.00
Match total	14.00	8.50	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	2.50	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Celtic	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	8.70	4.70
Corners conceded	4.60	4.50
Match total	13.30	9.20	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	3.60	3.80	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.