Newcastle

11th · Premier League · 8 points · Matches played: 7

13 points behind Manchester City · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-9.1 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -5.8 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 71.1-9.1
World Rank 30th Global, by Elo
Premier League Rank 11th L90 Strength
Last Aston VillaH xG 1.1–1.6 0–1 Next Crystal PalaceA 32%

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Upcoming fixtures

Newcastle · All competitions

Forecast
Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Away 32% win 1.21 xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home 45% win 1.60 xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away 32% win 1.21 xPts ArsenalPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts ArsenalPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Aston VillaPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Newcastle · All competitions

Full time
Aston VillaPremier League 2026-2027 · Home L 0–1 1.1–1.6 xG -1.2 Δpts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Away L 1–4 1.9–1.5 xG -1.5 Δpts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home W 2–1 1.4–1.6 xG +1.0 Δpts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Away L 1–4 0.9–2.1 xG -1.1 Δpts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Home D 2–2 0.7–1.4 xG -0.5 Δpts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 2–0 0.7–1.1 xG +1.6 Δpts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Home D 2–2 1.6–3.0 xG -0.4 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Newcastle first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 6

Rest profile7.9 days since last match
0%
Schedule load2 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel load398 km to venue, 571 km in 14 days
20%
Squad availability5 out, no key players · Last match: 17 Oct
7%

Load before the next match, at Crystal Palace, 25 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 23 Aug vs Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100
D
 Aug 29 Aug at Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 41/100
W
 5 Sep vs Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 56/100
D
 Sep 14 Sep at Leeds: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 52/100
L
 19 Sep vs Hull City: Schedule difficulty 12/100; match difficulty 23/100
W
 12 Oct at Coventry: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 32/100
L
 Oct 17 Oct vs Aston Villa: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100
L
 25 Oct at Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 43/100 2 Nov vs Everton: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 46/100 Nov 7 Nov at Fulham: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 44/100 21 Nov vs Arsenal: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 84/100 29 Nov at Brighton: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 64/100 2 Dec vs Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 60/100 Dec 5 Dec vs Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 37/100 12 Dec at Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 31/100 19 Dec at Brentford: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 55/100 26 Dec vs Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 77/100 30 Dec vs Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 49/100 3 Jan at Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 56/100 Jan 7 Jan at Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 60/100 16 Jan vs Fulham: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 44/100 23 Jan at Arsenal: Schedule difficulty 45/100; match difficulty 84/100 30 Jan vs Brighton: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 64/100 6 Feb at Everton: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 46/100 Feb 10 Feb vs Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 56/100 20 Feb at Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 77/100 27 Feb vs Brentford: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 55/100 3 Mar at Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 49/100 Mar 13 Mar at Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 56/100 20 Mar vs Leeds: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 52/100 10 Apr at Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100 Apr 17 Apr vs Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 41/100 24 Apr vs Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 31/100 1 May at Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 37/100 May 8 May vs Coventry: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 32/100 15 May at Aston Villa: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100 23 May vs Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 43/100 30 May at Hull City: Schedule difficulty 12/100; match difficulty 23/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest7.9 daysbefore CRY
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel / 14d571 kmaway trips
Schedule load6%Low
at Crystal PalaceSun 25 Oct, 14:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 64 32%win23%draw44%loss Low load · 7.9 d rest vs EvertonMon 2 Nov, 20:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 67 45%win24%draw31%loss Low load · 8.3 d rest at FulhamSat 7 Nov, 15:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 64 32%win23%draw44%loss Low load · 4.8 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → at Crystal Palace, 25 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

2 of 3 forecasts available · Partial window

Attack Swing+13%

Baseline 2.99 → Forecast 3.37 expected goals · 2 included matches

Conceding Swing−10%

Baseline 3.69 → Forecast 3.32 expected goals conceded · 2 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
at Crystal Palace25 Oct · Premier League 2026-2027 +20% −9% 1.32 → 1.58
vs Everton2 Nov · Premier League 2026-2027 +7% −11% 1.67 → 1.79
at Fulham7 Nov · Premier League 2026-2027 — — Opportunity unavailable

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Newcastle

Baseline: average Premier League opponent

Attack Uplift +20% Expected goals Baseline1.32Forecast1.58
Conceding Risk −9% Expected goals conceded Baseline2.06Forecast1.87
Clean Sheet +2.6 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline12.7%Forecast15.4%