Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Celta Vigo

UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 20:00 Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva 24th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

VS— Compare

Celta Vigo 28th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel4,009 kmRest days42.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d0 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Hapoel Beer Sheva—%

Draw—%

Celta Vigo—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Beer Sheva)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Celta Vigo

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

26 AttackIn forecast 36

31 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext 47

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Celta Vigo

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

50% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.50 ShotsContext 13.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

29% On target shareContext 27%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

65% Box shareContext 62%

5% ConversionContext 4%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

10.50 Shots allowedContext 16.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.50 BlocksContext 4.50

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

71% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

550 PassesContext 516

466 Accurate passesContext 460

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.57 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.50 FoulsContext 13.00

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def 0.99

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

— Goals minus xGContext +0.11

80% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.25 ShotsContext 10.40

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

34% On target shareContext 32%

9.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

71% Box shareContext 50%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

15.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.75 BlocksContext 3.80

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

67% Save rateContext 77%

63% PossessionIn forecast 49%

569 PassesContext 497

489 Accurate passesContext 431

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.40 FoulsContext 11.90

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hapoel Beer Sheva DL

Rest42.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 34 · 1 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L15 OctA · AZ Alkmaar1–20.8 xPts
D16 SepH · Dinamo Zagreb0–01.4 xPts

Celta Vigo LWDLW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel4,009 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	42.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec	4.2La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	4,009 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hapoel Beer Sheva Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs AZ Alkmaar (A) 1–2, 15 Oct

1O. Marciano(G)

5Pedro Amador 15I. Nachmias 44Djibril Diop 2G. Mizrahi

7E. Peretz 25Lucas Ventura 17A. Forson

9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 45M. Abu Rumi

Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

13I. Radu(G)

21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez

23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira

19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Hapoel Beer Sheva Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Celta Vigo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hapoel Beer Sheva · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Celta Vigo · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Celta Vigo
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	1.50	2.00
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Celta Vigo
Scored per game	1.38	1.10
Conceded per game	1.25	1.00
Match goals	2.63	2.10
Over 1.5	75%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%
Over 3.5	13%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	13%	40%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.00
Corners conceded	3.50	5.00
Match total	7.00	10.00	9.76
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	3.67
Corners conceded	4.60	5.22
Match total	7.80	8.89	9.76
Over 8.5	20% 1/5	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.30	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	5.40	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.