NEC Nijmegen vs Benfica

UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen 27th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

VS— Compare

Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,865 kmRest days5.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

NEC Nijmegen—%

Draw—%

Benfica—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Nijmegen)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Benfica 10+ Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

NEC Nijmegen

Benfica

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

37 AttackIn forecast 81

33 DefenceIn forecast 81

18 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC Nijmegen

Benfica

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.62

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

— Goals minus xGContext +1.38

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.50 ShotsContext 18.50

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

41% On target shareContext 30%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

53% Box shareContext 63%

3% ConversionContext 16%

— OffsidesContext 2.50

9.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.00 BlocksContext 2.00

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

33% Save rateContext 91%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

493 PassesContext 477

423 Accurate passesContext 424

86% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.37 Team ratingContext 7.38

16.50 FoulsContext 10.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 4.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.94 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

-0.84 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

70% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.00 ShotsContext 18.13

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

32% On target shareContext 32%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

59% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.70 Shots allowedContext 9.88

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.80 BlocksContext 2.56

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

59% Save rateContext 75%

52% PossessionIn forecast 60%

442 PassesContext 538

358 Accurate passesContext 472

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.44 Team ratingContext 7.16

11.70 FoulsContext 11.00

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen LDDDD

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km214 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Benfica WWLWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,865 km994 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NEC Nijmegen	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Jan	4.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,865 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	214 km	994 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm

35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton

30B. Linssen

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Benfica Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Benfica · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	NEC Nijmegen	Benfica
Scored per game	0.50	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.50
Match goals	3.50	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	NEC Nijmegen	Benfica
Scored per game	1.10	2.70
Conceded per game	2.20	0.80
Match goals	3.30	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	80%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NEC Nijmegen	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.50
Corners conceded	1.00	7.50
Match total	7.00	12.00	9.76
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	4.00
Opponent cards	0.50	0.50
Match total	1.50	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	NEC Nijmegen	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.38
Corners conceded	3.88	4.25
Match total	7.88	10.63	9.76
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.40
Opponent cards	1.40	2.20
Match total	2.90	4.60	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.