UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Merkur Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz 26th · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
OFI 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,534 kmRest days42 · 41.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Sturm Graz—%
Draw—%
OFI—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Graz)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sturm Graz and OFI. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sturm GrazOFI
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
32 AttackIn forecast 18
37 DefenceIn forecast 25
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—
Defense risk—

OFI

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm GrazOFI
0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.53 xGVia Att/Def —
2.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.53 Goals minus xGContext —
0% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
8.50 ShotsContext 5.50
2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00
29% On target shareContext 36%
5.50 Shots in the boxContext 3.00
65% Box shareContext 53%
0% ConversionContext 27%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
23.50 Shots allowedContext 23.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
6.50 BlocksContext 6.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
62% Save rateContext 86%
38% PossessionIn forecast 33%
289 PassesContext 263
197 Accurate passesContext 173
68% Pass accuracyContext 66%
6.42 Team ratingContext 6.60
15.00 FoulsContext 9.50
8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 18.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.66
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.84
60% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.50 ShotsContext 6.13
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
30% On target shareContext 41%
9.40 Shots in the boxContext 4.00
61% Box shareContext 59%
9% ConversionContext 20%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.71
14.60 Shots allowedContext 18.00
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.88
3.50 BlocksContext 4.80
4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.88
76% Save rateContext 86%
45% PossessionIn forecast 45%
317 PassesContext 373
236 Accurate passesContext 290
75% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.82
13.10 FoulsContext 11.10
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.10
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 1 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Bournemouth0–30.5 xPts
  • D16 SepH · Rennes0–01.3 xPts
OFI
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,534 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 54 · 3 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Rennes1–20.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sturm Graz OFI
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec41.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,534 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one7.17.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–3, 15 Oct
53D. Khudyakov(G)
27L. Balbo 21P. Petrović 2J. Quarshie 23A. Malić 28Jurgen Heil
43J. Hödl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 78V. Matoshi
26B. Beganović 19Simon Seidl
OFI Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rennes (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
31N. Christogeorgos(G)
2K. Krizmanić 43D. Nikolaou 15A. Poungouras
3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann
18T. Nuss 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sturm Graz Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
OFI Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00
OFI · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentSturm GrazOFI
Rennes D 0–0 H L 1–2 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sturm GrazOFIForecast
Scored per game 0.001.50
Conceded per game 1.501.00
Match goals 1.502.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games22
Sturm GrazOFIForecast
Scored per game 0.802.00
Conceded per game 1.200.50
Match goals 2.002.50
Over 1.5 60%100%
Over 2.5 40%50%
Over 3.5 10%0%
Both teams scored 10%25%
Clean sheets 40%75%
Failed to score 60%0%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sturm GrazOFILeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.50
Corners conceded5.5010.50
Match total9.5014.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards3.002.00
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total4.504.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Sturm GrazOFILeague
Corners
Corners won5.103.25
Corners conceded5.307.63
Match total10.4010.889.76
Over 8.570% 7/1088% 7/8
Over 9.560% 6/1075% 6/8
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.801.80
Opponent cards1.302.80
Match total3.104.603.76
Over 3.540% 4/10100% 10/10
Over 4.510% 1/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sturm Graz2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
OFI2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 2 76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 2 76-90
OFI10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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