UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 20:00 Enea Stadion, Poznań
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,491 kmRest days42 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Lech Poznan—%
Draw—%
Torreense—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Poznań)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lech Poznan and Torreense. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lech PoznanTorreense
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 26
35 AttackIn forecast 21
23 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lech Poznan

Attack—
Defense risk—

Torreense

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lech PoznanTorreense
0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
4.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
0% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.50 ShotsContext 7.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00
33% On target shareContext 29%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext —
41% Box shareContext —
0% ConversionContext 21%
— OffsidesContext —
19.00 Shots allowedContext 22.50
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 6.50
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
56% Save rateContext 64%
43% PossessionIn forecast 36%
433 PassesContext 287
353 Accurate passesContext 211
82% Pass accuracyContext 74%
6.05 Team ratingContext 6.64
6.00 FoulsContext 13.50
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
1.06 xGVia Att/Def —
3.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.34 Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext 50%
30% Clean sheetsContext 25%
14.71 ShotsContext 11.75
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00
41% On target shareContext 17%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.33
56% Box shareContext 64%
14% ConversionContext 6%
1.25 OffsidesContext 1.33
13.57 Shots allowedContext 16.00
5.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25
3.10 BlocksContext 4.00
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
56% Save rateContext 71%
53% PossessionIn forecast 48%
443 PassesContext 339
367 Accurate passesContext 263
83% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.57 Team ratingContext 6.70
10.00 FoulsContext 12.25
14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 4 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lech Poznan
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.9 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Crystal Palace0–40.9 xPts
Torreense
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,491 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 50 · 3 pts vs 3.0 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · Sunderland1–21.0 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Lillestrom2–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lech Poznan Torreense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec42UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,491 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lech Poznan Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (H) 0–4, 15 Oct
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul 27W. Mońka 72M. Skrzypczak 2Joel Pereira
43A. Kozubal 5K. Berggren
14E. Bengtsson 9M. Ishak 10J. Wålemark
77L. Palma
Torreense Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 1–2, 15 Oct
1Lucas Paes(G)
23Javi Vázquez 4V. Feltes 5M. Diadie 45J. Mutombo
8Alejandro Alfaro 6A. Oudrhiri
19K. Zoabi 33João Marques 11Manu Pozo
27A. Abubakari

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lech Poznan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Torreense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lech Poznan · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
4.00
Torreense · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Lech Poznan2 games · scored 0 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Torreense2 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Lech Poznan9 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
8 3 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 61-75
4 3 76-90
Torreense4 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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