UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 17:45 Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Beer Sheva
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,796 kmRest days14 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Hapoel Beer Sheva—%
Draw—%
Juventus—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Beer Sheva)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Hapoel Beer Sheva and Juventus. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Hapoel Beer ShevaJuventus
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
28 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
26 AttackIn forecast 57
31 DefenceIn forecast 76
— Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—
Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hapoel Beer ShevaJuventus
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
0.92 xGVia Att/Def —
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.50 ShotsContext 16.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
29% On target shareContext 39%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.00
65% Box shareContext 80%
5% ConversionContext 21%
1.50 OffsidesContext —
10.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
3.50 BlocksContext 1.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
71% Save rateContext 80%
54% PossessionIn forecast 51%
550 PassesContext 525
466 Accurate passesContext 463
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.57 Team ratingContext 7.20
13.50 FoulsContext 14.00
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
— xGVia Att/Def 1.50
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61
— Goals minus xGContext +0.30
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.25 ShotsContext 16.70
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
34% On target shareContext 35%
9.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
71% Box shareContext 60%
9% ConversionContext 11%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.75
15.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90
3.75 BlocksContext 1.89
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13
67% Save rateContext 68%
63% PossessionIn forecast 57%
569 PassesContext 532
489 Accurate passesContext 466
86% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.68 Team ratingContext 6.85
11.40 FoulsContext 12.60
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,397 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 34 · 1 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · AZ Alkmaar1–20.8 xPts
  • D16 SepH · Dinamo Zagreb0–01.4 xPts
Juventus
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,796 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hapoel Beer Sheva Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov4Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,796 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,397 km273 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one42.13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hapoel Beer Sheva Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs AZ Alkmaar (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
1O. Marciano(G)
5Pedro Amador 15I. Nachmias 44Djibril Diop 2G. Mizrahi
7E. Peretz 25Lucas Ventura 17A. Forson
9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 45M. Abu Rumi
Juventus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu
29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González
9R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hapoel Beer Sheva Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Juventus Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hapoel Beer Sheva · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00
Juventus · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Hapoel Beer Sheva2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Juventus2 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva9 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 6 76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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