UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 Enea Stadion, Poznań
Lech Poznan 36th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Ferencvarosi TC 7th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel566 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lech Poznan—%
Draw—%
Ferencvarosi TC—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Poznań)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lech Poznan and Ferencvarosi TC. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TC
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 57
35 AttackIn forecast 61
23 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lech Poznan

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TC
0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
4.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
0% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.50 ShotsContext 13.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
33% On target shareContext 46%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
41% Box shareContext 66%
0% ConversionContext 19%
— OffsidesContext 1.00
19.00 Shots allowedContext 17.00
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 6.50
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
56% Save rateContext 82%
43% PossessionIn forecast 46%
433 PassesContext 395
353 Accurate passesContext 321
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.05 Team ratingContext 6.91
6.00 FoulsContext 12.50
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
1.06 xGVia Att/Def —
3.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.34 Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.71 ShotsContext —
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
41% On target shareContext 46%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext —
56% Box shareContext —
14% ConversionContext 19%
1.25 OffsidesContext —
13.57 Shots allowedContext —
5.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
3.10 BlocksContext 5.00
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext —
56% Save rateContext 82%
53% PossessionIn forecast 48%
443 PassesContext —
367 Accurate passesContext —
83% Pass accuracyContext —
6.57 Team ratingContext —
10.00 FoulsContext 14.75
14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lech Poznan
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.9 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Crystal Palace0–40.9 xPts
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel566 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Plzen2–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Celtic3–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lech Poznan Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km566 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4241.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lech Poznan Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (H) 0–4, 15 Oct
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul 27W. Mońka 72M. Skrzypczak 2Joel Pereira
43A. Kozubal 5K. Berggren
14E. Bengtsson 9M. Ishak 10J. Wålemark
77L. Palma
Ferencvarosi TC Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Plzen (H) 2–1, 15 Oct
63D. Radnóti(G)
20Cadu 4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 14A. Osváth
6Á. Nagy 17M. Corbu
7V. Birmančević 16K. Zachariassen 11B. Yusuf
76K. Lisztes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lech Poznan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Ferencvarosi TC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lech Poznan · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
4.00
Ferencvarosi TC · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 0.002.50
Conceded per game 4.001.00
Match goals 4.003.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 0%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games22
Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 2.382.10
Conceded per game 1.750.70
Match goals 4.132.80
Over 1.5 88%80%
Over 2.5 88%70%
Over 3.5 75%30%
Both teams scored 25%60%
Clean sheets 38%40%
Failed to score 38%0%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won4.505.00
Corners conceded5.507.00
Match total10.0012.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.000.50
Match total2.502.503.76
Over 3.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
Lech PoznanFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won5.506.00
Corners conceded4.506.25
Match total10.0012.259.76
Over 8.570% 7/10100% 4/4
Over 9.540% 4/10100% 4/4
Over 10.540% 4/1075% 3/4
Cards
Cards1.801.80
Opponent cards2.401.50
Match total4.203.303.76
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lech Poznan2 games · scored 0 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
1 1 76-90
Lech Poznan9 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
8 3 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 61-75
4 3 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 21 · conceded 7
2 0-15
5 16-30
2 4 31-45
5 46-60
2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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