UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
OFI 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel3,050 kmRest days4.2 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Benfica—%
Draw—%
OFI—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lisboa)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Benfica and OFI. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BenficaOFI
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
82 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
81 AttackIn forecast 18
81 DefenceIn forecast 25
85 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—
Defense risk—

OFI

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BenficaOFI
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.62 xGVia Att/Def —
1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.38 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.50 ShotsContext 5.50
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00
30% On target shareContext 36%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 3.00
63% Box shareContext 53%
16% ConversionContext 27%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 23.00
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
2.00 BlocksContext 6.00
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
91% Save rateContext 86%
47% PossessionIn forecast 33%
477 PassesContext 263
424 Accurate passesContext 173
89% Pass accuracyContext 66%
7.38 Team ratingContext 6.60
10.50 FoulsContext 9.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 18.00
4.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 0.66
0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.84
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.13 ShotsContext 6.13
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
32% On target shareContext 41%
13.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.00
71% Box shareContext 59%
15% ConversionContext 20%
2.17 OffsidesContext 1.71
9.88 Shots allowedContext 18.00
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.88
2.56 BlocksContext 4.80
2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.88
75% Save rateContext 86%
60% PossessionIn forecast 45%
538 PassesContext 373
472 Accurate passesContext 290
88% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.16 Team ratingContext 6.82
11.00 FoulsContext 11.10
15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.10
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
  • W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
  • W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts
OFI
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel3,050 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 54 · 3 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Rennes1–20.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Benfica OFI
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Dec14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km3,050 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,944 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.841.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah
36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio
22J. Durán
OFI Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rennes (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
31N. Christogeorgos(G)
2K. Krizmanić 43D. Nikolaou 15A. Poungouras
3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann
18T. Nuss 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Benfica Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
OFI Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00
OFI · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

BenficaOFIForecast
Scored per game 3.001.50
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 3.502.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
BenficaOFIForecast
Scored per game 2.702.00
Conceded per game 0.800.50
Match goals 3.502.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 60%0%
Both teams scored 60%25%
Clean sheets 40%75%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BenficaOFILeague
Corners
Corners won4.503.50
Corners conceded7.5010.50
Match total12.0014.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 10.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards4.002.00
Opponent cards0.502.50
Match total4.504.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
BenficaOFILeague
Corners
Corners won6.383.25
Corners conceded4.257.63
Match total10.6310.889.76
Over 8.563% 5/888% 7/8
Over 9.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 10.538% 3/850% 4/8
Cards
Cards2.401.80
Opponent cards2.202.80
Match total4.604.603.76
Over 3.560% 6/10100% 10/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Benfica2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
OFI2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 2 76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 27 · conceded 8
3 1 0-15
5 16-30
5 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
OFI10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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