UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
Red Bull Salzburg 21st · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Sparta Praha 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel277 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Red Bull Salzburg—%
Draw—%
Sparta Praha—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Red Bull Salzburg and Sparta Praha. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Red Bull SalzburgSparta Praha
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
36 AttackIn forecast 33
29 DefenceIn forecast 34
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sparta Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull SalzburgSparta Praha
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.67
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
— Goals minus xGContext +0.83
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.00 ShotsContext 19.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
35% On target shareContext 42%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
59% Box shareContext 54%
4% ConversionContext 13%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
14.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
4.50 BlocksContext 2.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00
50% Save rateContext 50%
53% PossessionIn forecast 55%
493 PassesContext 433
430 Accurate passesContext 377
87% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.64 Team ratingContext 7.00
17.00 FoulsContext 14.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.15
1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.25
80% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.83 ShotsContext 11.70
4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
30% On target shareContext 34%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
63% Box shareContext 65%
5% ConversionContext 12%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
11.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
2.86 BlocksContext 3.44
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
56% Save rateContext 77%
58% PossessionIn forecast 53%
449 PassesContext 449
379 Accurate passesContext 380
84% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.33 FoulsContext 11.90
8.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 3 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · AC Milan0–41.3 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Levski Sofia1–01.5 xPts
Sparta Praha
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel277 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Lillestrom1–11.7 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Ararat-Armenia4–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Red Bull Salzburg Sparta Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km277 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4242

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AC Milan (H) 0–4, 15 Oct
52C. Zawieschitzky(G)
31D. Schmid 47V. Zabransky 44K. Boma 39L. Morgalla
15B. Mazurek 32A. Barry
20E. Baidoo 8S. Kitano 35J. Lindstrøm
9H. Tabaković
Sparta Praha Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lillestrom (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
44J. Surovčík(G)
15V. Vitályos 6T. Guddal 19A. Ševínský 2M. Suchomel
20S. Mannsverk 18A. Irving
27E. Singhateh 38Hugo Sochurek 31M. Jurásek
14J. Braut Brunes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Red Bull Salzburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sparta Praha Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
4.00
Sparta Praha · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Red Bull Salzburg wins0 draws1 Sparta Praha wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 18 Sep 2024Sparta Praha3–0Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Red Bull SalzburgSparta PrahaForecast
Scored per game 0.502.50
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 2.503.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 0%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Red Bull SalzburgSparta PrahaForecast
Scored per game 1.501.75
Conceded per game 1.601.50
Match goals 3.103.25
Over 1.5 60%100%
Over 2.5 60%75%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 40%75%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 20%25%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Red Bull SalzburgSparta PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.509.50
Corners conceded3.501.50
Match total7.0011.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards3.001.50
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total4.504.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Red Bull SalzburgSparta PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.716.11
Corners conceded4.004.44
Match total9.7110.559.76
Over 8.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 10.543% 3/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.001.60
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total2.903.303.76
Over 3.520% 2/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Red Bull Salzburg2 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Sparta Praha2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 4 76-90
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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