UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Besiktas 4th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,017 kmRest days5.2 · 4.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
Besiktas—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and Besiktas. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer LeverkusenBesiktas
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
87 AttackIn forecast 60
79 DefenceIn forecast 48
94 Form indexContext 62
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer LeverkusenBesiktas
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50
0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
3.56 xGVia Att/Def —
0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.56 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
100% Clean sheetsContext 0%
19.50 ShotsContext 18.50
9.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
46% On target shareContext 32%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
73% Box shareContext 78%
15% ConversionContext 19%
3.00 OffsidesContext —
7.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
2.00 BlocksContext 3.50
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
100% Save rateContext 50%
59% PossessionIn forecast 51%
597 PassesContext 473
535 Accurate passesContext 395
90% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.40 Team ratingContext 7.05
15.50 FoulsContext 9.00
7.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 2.06
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
100% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
18.50 ShotsContext 16.75
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25
36% On target shareContext 37%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.88
71% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 14%
1.89 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.25
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.10 BlocksContext 3.38
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88
63% Save rateContext 64%
58% PossessionIn forecast 59%
537 PassesContext 481
470 Accurate passesContext 410
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.97
11.90 FoulsContext 11.44
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.22
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
Besiktas
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel2,017 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
  • L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
  • W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Dec4.3Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,017 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways127 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1.83.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Besiktas Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Besiktas · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Bayer LeverkusenBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 3.003.50
Conceded per game 0.001.50
Match goals 3.005.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 50%100%
Both teams scored 0%100%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Bayer LeverkusenBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 2.402.20
Conceded per game 1.301.40
Match goals 3.703.60
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer LeverkusenBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.00
Corners conceded3.005.50
Match total8.509.509.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards0.502.50
Match total1.504.003.76
Over 3.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Bayer LeverkusenBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won6.705.78
Corners conceded3.504.44
Match total10.2010.229.76
Over 8.560% 6/1067% 6/9
Over 9.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.202.20
Opponent cards1.802.60
Match total3.004.803.76
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen2 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Besiktas2 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
3 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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