UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 Vivacom Arena – Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Levski Sofia 25th · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Lillestrom 23rd · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,094 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Levski Sofia—%
Draw—%
Lillestrom—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sofia)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Levski Sofia and Lillestrom. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Levski SofiaLillestrom
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 27
24 AttackIn forecast 23
26 DefenceIn forecast 31
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levski Sofia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lillestrom

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levski SofiaLillestrom
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.00 ShotsContext 14.50
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
9% On target shareContext 28%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
76% Box shareContext 56%
5% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 4.00
7.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
88% Save rateContext 64%
48% PossessionIn forecast 58%
455 PassesContext 475
379 Accurate passesContext 393
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.63
11.50 FoulsContext 11.50
17.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
0.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
11.50 ShotsContext —
2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
20% On target shareContext 28%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext —
59% Box shareContext —
9% ConversionContext 7%
1.00 OffsidesContext —
14.00 Shots allowedContext —
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
4.40 BlocksContext 6.00
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext —
80% Save rateContext 64%
51% PossessionIn forecast 55%
460 PassesContext —
392 Accurate passesContext —
85% Pass accuracyContext —
6.85 Team ratingContext —
10.80 FoulsContext 12.75
15.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 4 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levski Sofia
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D15 OctA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.0 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Red Bull Salzburg0–11.3 xPts
Lillestrom
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,094 km3,260 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Form 30 · 1 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D15 OctA · Sparta Praha1–11.1 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Torreense1–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Levski Sofia Lillestrom
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov14UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,094 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km3,260 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4241.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levski Sofia Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 1–1, 15 Oct
92S. Vutsov(G)
3Maicon 4C. Makoun 50K. Dimitrov 21Aldair
19E. El Moubarik 8M. Grujić 35Serginho
17Everton Bala 7Reinaldo 27D. Kusso
Lillestrom Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Sparta Praha (A) 1–1, 15 Oct
12P. Dahlberg(G)
26W. Paintsil 47S. Kristiansen 28L. Gabrielsen 2Lars Ranger
14G. Nyheim 21F. Ottosson 29Y. Ibrahimaj
20Vá 8F. Gulbrandsen 22D. Bassi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Levski Sofia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lillestrom Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Levski Sofia · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00
Lillestrom · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Levski SofiaLillestromForecast
Scored per game 0.501.00
Conceded per game 1.001.50
Match goals 1.502.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 0%50%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Levski SofiaLillestromForecast
Scored per game 1.101.00
Conceded per game 0.901.00
Match goals 2.002.00
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 30%50%
Over 3.5 30%0%
Both teams scored 30%75%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 30%25%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Levski SofiaLillestromLeague
Corners
Corners won3.006.00
Corners conceded5.004.00
Match total8.0010.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards0.501.50
Opponent cards3.004.00
Match total3.505.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Levski SofiaLillestromLeague
Corners
Corners won3.506.25
Corners conceded4.835.50
Match total8.3311.759.76
Over 8.567% 4/675% 3/4
Over 9.517% 1/675% 3/4
Over 10.517% 1/650% 2/4
Cards
Cards1.401.75
Opponent cards2.102.75
Match total3.504.503.76
Over 3.540% 4/1075% 3/4
Over 4.540% 4/1075% 3/4

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Levski Sofia2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Lillestrom2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 76-90
Lillestrom4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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