Slavia Praha vs Arsenal

UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 Fortuna Arena, Praha

Slavia Praha 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Arsenal 7th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal are clear favourites.

Arsenal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Slavia Praha. Slavia Praha have 15.1 days of rest, Arsenal 3.1 and have to travel 1,033 km.

Away travel1,033 kmRest days15.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d0 · 2

Slavia Praha10%

Draw16%

Arsenal74%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.53

Slavia Praha8%

Draw16%

Arsenal76%

Expected goals 0.72 – 2.49

Slavia Praha10%

Draw16%

Arsenal74%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.53

Slavia Praha7%

Draw13%

Arsenal80%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.84

Slavia Praha10%

Draw17%

Arsenal73%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.45

Over 2.5 65% Both score 52% Likeliest score 0–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Praha)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Arsenal 3 Wins in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

Slavia Praha

Arsenal

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

41 AttackIn forecast 86

40 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext 92

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Slavia Praha

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Slavia Praha

Arsenal

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 100%

17.50 ShotsContext 21.00

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00

37% On target shareContext 38%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.50

66% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 10%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

19.00 Shots allowedContext 4.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

5.50 BlocksContext 2.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

57% Save rateContext 100%

46% PossessionIn forecast 58%

334 PassesContext 576

253 Accurate passesContext 524

76% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.43 Team ratingContext 7.17

11.00 FoulsContext 12.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

40% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.60 ShotsContext 13.50

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

30% On target shareContext 34%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

61% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 12%

3.75 OffsidesContext 3.60

16.90 Shots allowedContext 10.80

7.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.60 BlocksContext 3.10

5.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

66% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 57%

329 PassesContext 508

248 Accurate passesContext 441

75% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.59 Team ratingContext 7.06

15.70 FoulsContext 11.20

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Slavia Praha LL

Rest15.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 0 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L13 OctA · Sabah FA0–21.4 xPts
L10 SepH · Lens2–31.3 xPts

Arsenal WLWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,033 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Slavia Praha	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,033 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	20.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Slavia Praha Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sabah FA (A) 0–2, 13 Oct

35J. Markovič(G)

27T. Vlček 6C. N'Guessan 4D. Zima 3T. Holeš

23M. Sadílek 16D. Moses

10D. Šturm 17L. Provod 20E. Ayaosi

25T. Chorý

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White

39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice

10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Slavia Praha No reported absences

Arsenal No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Slavia Praha+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arsenal+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Slavia Praha · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Arsenal · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Slavia Praha wins0 draws1 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

4 Nov 2025Slavia Praha0–3Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Slavia Praha	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.50	0.00
Match goals	3.50	2.00	3.35
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Slavia Praha	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	2.50	0.60
Match goals	3.50	2.30	3.35
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	60%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	2	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Slavia Praha	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.50	1.00
Match total	12.50	7.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Slavia Praha	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.67
Corners conceded	5.89	4.44
Match total	9.89	9.11	9.71
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	2.80
Match total	4.50	4.40	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.