Arsenal

2nd · Premier League · 18 points · Matches played: 7

3 points behind Manchester City · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-2.1 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -0.4 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 94.4-2.1
World Rank 1st Global, by Elo
Premier League Rank 1st L90 Strength
Last Nottingham ForestA xG 1.1–0.7 1–0 Next Bayern MünchenA 25%

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Arsenal · All competitions

Forecast
Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away 25% win 0.98 xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home 74% win 2.39 xPts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Away 42% win 1.51 xPts Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away 74% win 2.39 xPts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home 87% win 2.70 xPts NewcastlePremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Real MadridUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Real BetisUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away — win — xPts NewcastlePremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Sabah FAUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Aston VillaPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Arsenal · All competitions

Full time
Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 1–0 1.1–0.7 xG +1.0 Δpts LilleUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home W 3–0 1.9–0.4 xG +0.5 Δpts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Home W 2–1 2.1–0.7 xG +0.8 Δpts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away L 0–3 1.6–1.3 xG -1.8 Δpts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 2–0 1.9–1.8 xG +1.0 Δpts NapoliUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away W 1–0 — xG +0.9 Δpts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Home W 2–1 2.1–0.4 xG +0.8 Δpts Aston VillaPremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 1–0 1.0–0.3 xG +1.3 Δpts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Home W 3–0 1.9–0.2 xG +0.5 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Arsenal first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Moderate · 35

Rest profile3.1 days since last match
53%
Schedule load3 matches in last 14 days
30%
Travel load918 km to venue, 350 km in 14 days
40%
Squad availability3 out, 1 key: W. Saliba
12%

Load before the next match, at Bayern München, 21 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 21 Aug vs Coventry: Schedule difficulty 4/100; match difficulty 8/100
W
 Aug 31 Aug at Aston Villa: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 27/100
W
 6 Sep vs Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 10/100; match difficulty 19/100
W
 Sep 9 Sep at Napoli: Schedule difficulty 20/100; match difficulty 12/100
W
 12 Sep at Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 10/100
W
 19 Sep at Brighton: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 26/100
L
 10 Oct vs Leeds: Schedule difficulty 9/100; match difficulty 17/100
W
 Oct 13 Oct vs Lille: Schedule difficulty 9/100; match difficulty 10/100
W
 18 Oct at Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 8/100; match difficulty 15/100
W
 21 Oct at Bayern München: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 48/100 24 Oct vs Everton: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 14/100 1 Nov at Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 27/100 Nov 4 Nov at Slavia Praha: Schedule difficulty 13/100; match difficulty 6/100 7 Nov vs Hull City: Schedule difficulty 9/100; match difficulty 5/100 21 Nov at Newcastle: Schedule difficulty 11/100; match difficulty 16/100 24 Nov vs Borussia Dortmund: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 23/100 29 Nov vs Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100 2 Dec at Brentford: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 19/100 Dec 5 Dec at Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 12/100 9 Dec vs Real Madrid: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 35/100 12 Dec vs Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 20/100 19 Dec vs Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 22/100 27 Dec at Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 13/100 30 Dec at Fulham: Schedule difficulty 11/100; match difficulty 13/100 2 Jan vs Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 8/100 Jan 5 Jan vs Brentford: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 19/100 16 Jan at Hull City: Schedule difficulty 3/100; match difficulty 5/100 20 Jan at Real Betis: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 17/100 23 Jan vs Newcastle: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 16/100 27 Jan vs Sabah FA: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 3/100 30 Jan at Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 46/100; match difficulty 38/100 6 Feb vs Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 27/100 Feb 10 Feb at Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 12/100; match difficulty 8/100 20 Feb vs Fulham: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 13/100 27 Feb at Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 11/100; match difficulty 22/100 3 Mar vs Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 13/100 Mar 13 Mar at Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 10/100; match difficulty 19/100 20 Mar vs Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 5/100; match difficulty 10/100 10 Apr at Coventry: Schedule difficulty 4/100; match difficulty 8/100 Apr 17 Apr vs Aston Villa: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 27/100 24 Apr at Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 10/100; match difficulty 20/100 1 May vs Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 6/100; match difficulty 12/100 May 8 May at Leeds: Schedule difficulty 9/100; match difficulty 17/100 15 May vs Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 8/100; match difficulty 15/100 23 May at Everton: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 14/100 30 May vs Brighton: Schedule difficulty 13/100; match difficulty 26/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest3.1 daysbefore BAY
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel / 14d350 kmaway trips
Schedule load35%Moderate
at Bayern MünchenWed 21 Oct, 20:00 UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 94 25%win22%draw53%loss Moderate load · 3.1 d rest · 3 in 14 d vs EvertonSat 24 Oct, 15:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 67 74%win16%draw10%loss Moderate load · 2.8 d rest · 3 in 14 d at LiverpoolSun 1 Nov, 16:30 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 84 42%win25%draw33%loss Low load · 8.1 d rest at Slavia PrahaWed 4 Nov, 20:00 UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 40 74%win16%draw10%loss Moderate load · 3.1 d rest vs Hull CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 38 87%win9%draw4%loss Low load · 2.8 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → at Bayern München, 21 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing−8%

Baseline 6.06 → Forecast 5.61 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing+33%

Baseline 3.27 → Forecast 4.36 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
at Bayern München21 Oct · UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase −20% +82% 1.76 → 1.41
vs Everton24 Oct · Premier League 2026-2027 +7% −12% 2.38 → 2.55
at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier League 2026-2027 −14% +22% 1.93 → 1.65

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Arsenal

Baseline: average Premier League opponent

Attack Downlift −20% Expected goals Baseline1.76Forecast1.41
Conceding Risk +82% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.14Forecast2.08
Clean Sheet −19.5 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline32.0%Forecast12.5%