Estrela

10th · Primeira Liga · 10 points · Matches played: 8

14 points behind FC Porto · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

+5.1 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -0.2 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 19.5+5.1
World Rank 390th Global, by Elo
Primeira Liga Rank 15th L90 Strength
Last AroucaA xG 1.5–0.8 0–1 Next Casa PiaH 50%

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Upcoming fixtures

Estrela · All competitions

Forecast
Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home 50% win 1.76 xPts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away 32% win 1.23 xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home 11% win 0.49 xPts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NacionalPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AroucaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Casa PiaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MoreirensePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BenficaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts GuimaraesPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts GIL VicentePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts FC PortoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts MaritimoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts EstorilPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Estrela · All competitions

Full time
AroucaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away L 0–1 1.5–0.8 xG -0.9 Δpts Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home L 0–2 — xG -1.6 Δpts Rio AvePrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away D 3–3 — xG -0.4 Δpts SC BragaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home W 2–1 — xG +2.1 Δpts FamalicaoPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home D 2–2 — xG -0.3 Δpts NacionalPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away W 3–2 2.1–0.8 xG +1.8 Δpts AlvercaPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 1.4–1.9 xG +0.1 Δpts Sporting CPPrimeira Liga 2026-2027 · Home D 2–2 1.1–2.6 xG +0.5 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Estrela first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 0

Rest profile12.8 days since last match
0%
Schedule load1 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel loadHome match, 513 km in 14 days
0%
Squad availabilityFull squad available
0%

Load before the next match, vs Casa Pia, 24 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 8 Aug vs Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 93/100
D
 Aug 15 Aug at Alverca: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100
D
 30 Aug at Nacional: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 47/100
W
 5 Sep vs Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 69/100
D
 Sep 10 Sep vs SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 43/100; match difficulty 81/100
W
 14 Sep at Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 52/100
D
 20 Sep vs Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 64/100
L
 11 Oct at Arouca: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100
L
 Oct 24 Oct vs Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100 31 Oct at Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 57/100 8 Nov vs Benfica: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 93/100 Nov 28 Nov at Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 60/100 6 Dec vs GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 65/100 Dec 13 Dec at FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 46/100; match difficulty 92/100 20 Dec vs Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 44/100 27 Dec at Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 39/100; match difficulty 66/100 10 Jan vs Estoril: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 53/100 Jan 17 Jan at Sporting CP: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 93/100 24 Jan vs Alverca: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 62/100 31 Jan at SC Braga: Schedule difficulty 44/100; match difficulty 81/100 7 Feb vs Nacional: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 47/100 Feb 14 Feb at Famalicao: Schedule difficulty 38/100; match difficulty 69/100 21 Feb vs Rio Ave: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 52/100 28 Feb at Academico Viseu: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 64/100 7 Mar vs Arouca: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100 Mar 14 Mar at Casa Pia: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100 21 Mar vs Moreirense: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 57/100 4 Apr at Benfica: Schedule difficulty 47/100; match difficulty 93/100 Apr 11 Apr vs Guimaraes: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 60/100 18 Apr at GIL Vicente: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 65/100 25 Apr vs FC Porto: Schedule difficulty 46/100; match difficulty 92/100 2 May at Maritimo: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 44/100 May 9 May vs Santa Clara: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 66/100 16 May at Estoril: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 53/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest12.8 daysbefore CAS
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel / 14d513 kmaway trips
Schedule load0%Low
vs Casa PiaSat 24 Oct, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 18 50%win26%draw24%loss Low load · 12.8 d rest at MoreirenseSat 31 Oct, 15:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 25 32%win27%draw41%loss Low load · 7 d rest vs BenficaSun 8 Nov, 20:30 Primeira Liga 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 82 11%win17%draw72%loss Low load · 8.2 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → vs Casa Pia, 24 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

2 of 3 forecasts available · Partial window

Attack Swing+16%

Baseline 2.47 → Forecast 2.86 expected goals · 2 included matches

Conceding Swing−22%

Baseline 3.21 → Forecast 2.49 expected goals conceded · 2 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
vs Casa Pia24 Oct · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 +18% −26% 1.38 → 1.62
at Moreirense31 Oct · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 +13% −20% 1.09 → 1.24
vs Benfica8 Nov · Primeira Liga 2026-2027 — — Opportunity unavailable

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Estrela

Baseline: average Primeira Liga opponent

Attack Uplift +18% Expected goals Baseline1.38Forecast1.62
Conceding Risk −26% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.41Forecast1.05
Clean Sheet +10.7 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline24.3%Forecast35.0%