Aston Villa

12th · Premier League · 8 points · Matches played: 7

13 points behind Manchester City · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-2.4 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +0.8 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 84.3-2.4
World Rank 7th Global, by Elo
Premier League Rank 3rd L90 Strength
Last NewcastleA xG 1.6–1.1 1–0 Next VikingH 85%

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Aston Villa · All competitions

Forecast
VikingUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home 85% win 2.66 xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home 37% win 1.34 xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home 60% win 2.00 xPts BarcelonaUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away 11% win 0.46 xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Away 37% win 1.36 xPts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts GalatasarayUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts EvertonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Manchester UnitedPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home — win — xPts FulhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away — win — xPts IpswichPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts SunderlandPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BournemouthPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LeedsPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts ChelseaPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LiverpoolPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts ArsenalPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts CoventryPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Crystal PalacePremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NewcastlePremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Manchester CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Aston Villa · All competitions

Full time
NewcastlePremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 1–0 1.6–1.1 xG +1.5 Δpts FenerbahceUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Home W 6–0 2.3–2.0 xG +1.0 Δpts BrentfordPremier League 2026-2027 · Home D 2–2 1.8–1.3 xG -0.7 Δpts TottenhamPremier League 2026-2027 · Away W 3–2 1.2–1.6 xG +1.5 Δpts Nottingham ForestPremier League 2026-2027 · Home L 1–2 0.8–2.3 xG -1.8 Δpts Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · Away W 3–2 3.2–1.5 xG +1.7 Δpts Hull CityPremier League 2026-2027 · Away D 0–0 1.9–0.6 xG -0.9 Δpts ArsenalPremier League 2026-2027 · Home L 0–1 0.3–1.0 xG -1.0 Δpts BrightonPremier League 2026-2027 · Away L 0–4 0.3–3.8 xG -1.4 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Aston Villa first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 15

Rest profile4.1 days since last match
0%
Schedule load3 matches in last 14 days
30%
Travel loadHome match, 555 km in 14 days
0%
Squad availability9 out, 3 key: J. Manzambi, A. Wan-Bissaka
30%

Load before the next match, vs Viking, 21 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 23 Aug at Brighton: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100
L
 Aug 31 Aug vs Arsenal: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 73/100
L
 5 Sep at Hull City: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 13/100
D
 Sep 8 Sep at Club Brugge KV: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 39/100
W
 12 Sep vs Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 33/100
L
 19 Sep at Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 26/100
W
 10 Oct vs Brentford: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100
D
 Oct 14 Oct vs Fenerbahce: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 28/100
W
 17 Oct at Newcastle: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 34/100
W
 21 Oct vs Viking: Schedule difficulty 10/100; match difficulty 5/100 24 Oct vs Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 53/100; match difficulty 63/100 31 Oct vs Fulham: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 28/100 3 Nov at Barcelona: Schedule difficulty 53/100; match difficulty 70/100 Nov 8 Nov at Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 43/100 21 Nov vs Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 12/100; match difficulty 23/100 24 Nov at Galatasaray: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 28/100 28 Nov at Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 18/100 2 Dec vs Everton: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 30/100 Dec 5 Dec vs Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 41/100; match difficulty 28/100 8 Dec vs Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 42/100; match difficulty 60/100 12 Dec at Coventry: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 19/100 19 Dec at Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 39/100 26 Dec vs Leeds: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 36/100 30 Dec vs Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 50/100 2 Jan at Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 40/100 Jan 5 Jan at Everton: Schedule difficulty 27/100; match difficulty 30/100 16 Jan vs Manchester United: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 43/100 19 Jan vs Borussia Dortmund: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 44/100 23 Jan at Fulham: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 28/100 27 Jan at Slavia Praha: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 14/100 30 Jan vs Ipswich: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 18/100 6 Feb at Sunderland: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 23/100 Feb 10 Feb vs Bournemouth: Schedule difficulty 30/100; match difficulty 40/100 20 Feb at Leeds: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 36/100 27 Feb vs Chelsea: Schedule difficulty 20/100; match difficulty 39/100 3 Mar at Liverpool: Schedule difficulty 25/100; match difficulty 50/100 Mar 13 Mar vs Hull City: Schedule difficulty 7/100; match difficulty 13/100 20 Mar at Nottingham Forest: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 33/100 10 Apr vs Brighton: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 48/100 Apr 17 Apr at Arsenal: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 73/100 24 Apr vs Coventry: Schedule difficulty 10/100; match difficulty 19/100 1 May at Crystal Palace: Schedule difficulty 14/100; match difficulty 28/100 May 8 May at Brentford: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100 15 May vs Newcastle: Schedule difficulty 17/100; match difficulty 34/100 23 May at Manchester City: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 63/100 30 May vs Tottenham: Schedule difficulty 13/100; match difficulty 26/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest4.1 daysbefore VIK
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel / 14d555 kmaway trips
Schedule load15%Low
vs VikingWed 21 Oct, 20:00 UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 16 85%win10%draw5%loss Low load · 4.1 d rest · 3 in 14 d vs Manchester CitySat 24 Oct, 12:30 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 91 37%win22%draw41%loss High load · 2.7 d rest · 4 in 14 d vs FulhamSat 31 Oct, 20:00 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 65 60%win20%draw20%loss Low load · 7.4 d rest at BarcelonaTue 3 Nov, 20:00 UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase · opponent L90 Strength 93 11%win14%draw75%loss Moderate load · 3 d rest · 3 in 14 d at Manchester UnitedSun 8 Nov, 16:30 Premier League 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 79 37%win24%draw38%loss Low load · 4.9 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → vs Viking, 21 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing+22%

Baseline 6.12 → Forecast 7.49 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing−3%

Baseline 4.12 → Forecast 4.01 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
vs Viking21 Oct · UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase +66% −47% 1.96 → 3.27
vs Manchester City24 Oct · Premier League 2026-2027 −5% +40% 2.02 → 1.92
vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier League 2026-2027 +8% −5% 2.14 → 2.30

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Aston Villa

Baseline: average Premier League opponent

Attack Uplift +66% Expected goals Baseline1.96Forecast3.27
Conceding Risk −47% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.34Forecast0.72
Clean Sheet +22.8 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline26.1%Forecast48.9%