Galatasaray
Attack−23%
Defense risk+58%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards VfB Stuttgart. Galatasaray have 4 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 3.1 and have to travel 1,773 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,773 kmRest days4 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Galatasaray41%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Galatasaray41%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart32%
Galatasaray41%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Galatasaray33%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Galatasaray40%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 26%
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Galatasaray
+0.75
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.22
-
Trend
Galatasaray
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Galatasaray
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Galatasaray
+0.75
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.22
-
Trend
Galatasaray
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Galatasaray
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Galatasaray
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Galatasaray
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Galatasaray
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
GalatasarayVfB Stuttgart
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
57
AttackIn forecast
70
55
DefenceIn forecast
58
59
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack−3%
Defense risk+2%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
GalatasarayVfB Stuttgart
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
—
2.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
7.50
ShotsContext
16.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
33%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
70%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
44%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
402
PassesContext
628
343
Accurate passesContext
550
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.25
Team ratingContext
7.15
11.00
FoulsContext
14.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.20
ShotsContext
16.80
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
34%
On target shareContext
37%
13.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
69%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.56
BlocksContext
5.22
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
64%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
460
PassesContext
502
397
Accurate passesContext
422
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.60
FoulsContext
11.10
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
WLWLW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,424 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
VfB Stuttgart
LLWWL
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,773 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | High · 43 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Oct | 3.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,773 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,424 km | 590 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Last XI · not confirmed
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
83A. Batrakov
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
VfB Stuttgart
Last XI · not confirmed
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 11.70 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Galatasaray2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
VfB Stuttgart2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
6
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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