UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 29th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Red Bull Salzburg 21st · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Anderlecht are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Anderlecht. Anderlecht have 4.9 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 13.9 and have to travel 711 km.

Away travel711 kmRest days4.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Anderlecht53%
Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg24%
Expected goals 2.01 – 1.30
Anderlecht46%
Draw26%
Red Bull Salzburg27%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14
Anderlecht53%
Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg24%
Expected goals 2.01 – 1.30
Anderlecht45%
Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg31%
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.46
Anderlecht52%
Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg24%
Expected goals 1.87 – 1.21
Over 2.5 64% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AnderlechtRed Bull Salzburg
43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
37 AttackIn forecast 36
52 DefenceIn forecast 29
59 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtRed Bull Salzburg
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.29 xGVia Att/Def —
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.79 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.00
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
48% On target shareContext 35%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
68% Box shareContext 59%
4% ConversionContext 4%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
13.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
2.00 BlocksContext 4.50
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —
77% Save rateContext 50%
57% PossessionIn forecast 53%
519 PassesContext 493
452 Accurate passesContext 430
87% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.64
13.50 FoulsContext 17.00
16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.15
70% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.88 ShotsContext 13.83
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17
38% On target shareContext 30%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
61% Box shareContext 63%
8% ConversionContext 5%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.00
11.25 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
1.90 BlocksContext 2.86
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
81% Save rateContext 56%
60% PossessionIn forecast 58%
533 PassesContext 449
459 Accurate passesContext 379
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.90 FoulsContext 10.33
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.89
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,717 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel711 km490 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 51 · 3 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · AC Milan0–41.3 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Levski Sofia1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht Red Bull Salzburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km711 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,717 km490 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 50 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one2.821

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
Red Bull Salzburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AC Milan (H) 0–4, 15 Oct
52C. Zawieschitzky(G)
31D. Schmid 47V. Zabransky 44K. Boma 39L. Morgalla
15B. Mazurek 32A. Barry
20E. Baidoo 8S. Kitano 35J. Lindstrøm
9H. Tabaković

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht No reported absences
Red Bull Salzburg No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Anderlecht+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Red Bull Salzburg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Red Bull Salzburg · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtRed Bull SalzburgForecast
Scored per game 0.500.50
Conceded per game 1.502.00
Match goals 2.002.50 3.31
Over 1.5 50%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 64%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%0% 64%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
AnderlechtRed Bull SalzburgForecast
Scored per game 1.401.50
Conceded per game 0.701.60
Match goals 2.103.10 3.31
Over 1.5 60%60%
Over 2.5 60%60% 64%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 20%40% 64%
Clean sheets 60%40%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtRed Bull SalzburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.50
Corners conceded5.003.50
Match total9.007.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards1.003.00
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total3.004.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
AnderlechtRed Bull SalzburgLeague
Corners
Corners won5.405.71
Corners conceded3.804.00
Match total9.209.719.76
Over 8.560% 6/1057% 4/7
Over 9.540% 4/1043% 3/7
Over 10.510% 1/1043% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.201.00
Opponent cards1.801.90
Match total4.002.903.76
Over 3.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Red Bull Salzburg2 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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