Expected vs Actual Points
Points use identical covered matches on both axes.Only clubs from the selected league season are shown. Diagonal marks Actual = Expected. Above it means more points than expected; below it means fewer. Dashed lines mark group averages. Selected league-season totals. xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability, from stored LOAD90 forecasts. Pts and xPts cover exactly the same matches; uncovered matches are excluded from both. Saved pre-match forecasts and historical reconstructions are labelled separately. These totals can differ from the league table; they are not derived from xG.Choose club
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| Club | Expected points (xPts) | Actual points (Pts) |
|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 2.8 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 4.6 | 6 |
| AS Roma | 2.9 | 1 |
| Aston Villa | 3.3 | 6 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.5 | 3 |
| Barcelona | 4.9 | 6 |
| Bayern München | 5.4 | 4 |
| Bodo/Glimt | 1.5 | 3 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3.4 | 3 |
| Club Brugge KV | 2.4 | 3 |
| Como | 3.0 | 3 |
| FC Porto | 1.4 | 0 |
| Fenerbahce | 1.9 | 1 |
| Feyenoord | 1.8 | 3 |
| Galatasaray | 1.6 | 0 |
| Inter | 2.7 | 0 |
| Lask Linz | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lens | 2.8 | 3 |
| Lille | 2.0 | 0 |
| Liverpool | 3.8 | 6 |
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 0 |
| Manchester United | 3.6 | 3 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 3.6 | 6 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.5 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 2.6 | 3 |
| Real Betis | 2.5 | 6 |
| Real Madrid | 3.5 | 6 |
| Sabah FA | 1.6 | 3 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.2 | 4 |
| Slavia Praha | 2.7 | 0 |
| Slovan Bratislava | 1.0 | 0 |
| Sporting CP | 3.3 | 6 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 4.6 | 6 |
| Viking | 0.4 | 1 |
| Villarreal | 2.6 | 3 |