Expected vs Actual Points
Points use identical covered matches on both axes.Only clubs from the selected league season are shown. Diagonal marks Actual = Expected. Above it means more points than expected; below it means fewer. Dashed lines mark group averages. Selected league-season totals. xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability, from stored LOAD90 forecasts. Pts and xPts cover exactly the same matches; uncovered matches are excluded from both. Saved pre-match forecasts and historical reconstructions are labelled separately. These totals can differ from the league table; they are not derived from xG.Choose club
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| Club | Expected points (xPts) | Actual points (Pts) |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 3.4 | 0 |
| AC Milan | 2.5 | 3 |
| Anderlecht | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.4 | 0 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 3.1 | 3 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4.5 | 6 |
| Benfica | 4.1 | 6 |
| Besiktas | 3.0 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 4.1 | 6 |
| Celje | 1.7 | 0 |
| Celta Vigo | 2.5 | 0 |
| Celtic | 2.0 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 3.2 | 3 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.8 | 4 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 3.1 | 6 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jagiellonia | 3.0 | 3 |
| Juventus | 3.8 | 6 |
| Lech Poznan | 1.8 | 0 |
| Levski Sofia | 2.2 | 1 |
| Lillestrom | 2.7 | 1 |
| Lyon | 2.8 | 6 |
| Marseille | 2.4 | 0 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.4 | 1 |
| OFI | 1.4 | 3 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 3.6 | 6 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 2.6 | 6 |
| Plzen | 2.3 | 0 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.8 | 1 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 2.8 | 3 |
| Rennes | 3.7 | 4 |
| Sparta Praha | 3.6 | 4 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.9 | 1 |
| Sunderland | 3.5 | 6 |
| Torreense | 2.1 | 3 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 3.3 | 4 |